000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051526
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 04N95W to 07N108W to 
04N132W. The ITCZ continues from 04N132W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N and E of 90W, from 
00N to 12N between 104W and 131W, and from 03N to 05N and W of 
137W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1029 mb high centered near 41N130W continues to extend a ridge
SE to the Baja California Norte offshore waters. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a surface trough near the Gulf of
California is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds west of Baja
California Norte, and gentle to moderate NW winds west of Baja 
California Sur. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except 
for moderate NW winds along the S and SW Mexican adjacent waters.
Seas are in the 7-10 ft range off Baja California Norte, 5-7 ft 
off Baja California Sur, 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California, and 
4-6 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds west of Baja California
will gradually diminish today. Northwest swell affecting the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte will reach Baja 
California Sur Thu before subsiding Thu night. In the Gulf of 
California, light to gentle winds will dominate through Wed night
and increase to moderate to fresh speeds Thu and Fri. A low and 
associated surface trough developing in southern California 
Saturday will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf 
of California Sat and Sat night. Gale-force gap winds are 
possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night into Sat morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire forecast waters
with seas in the 4-6 ft range, in S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate easterly winds will pulse at night in
the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong
speeds this weekend. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected 
over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week.
N to NE swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region on Thu night will extend to the Guatemala and
El Salvador offshore waters Fri into Sat. Seas elsewhere will be
mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 15N, anchored by
a 1029 mb high centered near 41N130W. The pressure gradient 
between this feature and the equatorial trough is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds north of 06N and west of 120W. Seas over 
this area are mainly in the 8-10 ft range in NW swell as 
indicated by recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds prevail, with seas in the 5-6 ft range. 

For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken
through Thu in response to an approaching cold front. Fresh NE 
to E winds N of 06N and W of 120W will diminish to moderate 
speeds midweek. A new set of NW swell is forecast to affect the 
NW forecast waters on Fri as a result of the passage of the cold 
front. Otherwise, cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to
propagate through the waters south of 01N and between the 
Galapagos Islands and 120W through the middle of the week.

$$
ERA