000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041434
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 04N91W to 05N102W to
07N123W to 05N130W. The ITCZ continues from 05N130W to 04N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N
to 08N east of 96W, from 01N to 07N between 100W and 115W, and
from 06N to 10N between 120W and 126W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge of high pressure prevails west of the Baja California
peninsula. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface
trough over the Gulf of California is supporting fresh to locally
strong winds west of Baja California Norte, and moderate to fresh
winds west of Baja California Sur, reaching string speeds south
of Cabo San Lucas. Light to gentle winds prevail over the Gulf of
California, reaching fresh speeds through the gaps of Baja
California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range off Baja
California Norte, 6-7 ft off Baja California Sur, 1-3 ft over the
Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of the open
waters off Mexico. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area 
through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds west of Baja California 
will continue into Tue morning with locally strong winds SW of 
Cabo San Lucas through late today. Light to gentle winds will 
then continue through late Thu when the development of a surface 
trough along the Baja Peninsula and the Gulf of California will 
lead to gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California Norte 
through Fri. Northwest swell affecting the offshore waters of 
Baja California Norte will reach Baja California Sur on Thu 
before subsiding Thu night. In the Gulf of California, light to 
gentle winds will dominate through Wed night and increase to 
moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Fri. Gale- force gap winds 
are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the forecast waters,
reaching fresh speeds over the Gulf of Papagayo. Seas are in the
4-6 ft range, mainly is S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will 
prevail in the Papagayo region through the week. Mainly light to 
gentle variable winds are expected over the rest of the offshore 
waters through the end of the week. Seas over the forecast waters
will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N, anchored by
a 1028 mb high that is centered NW of the area near 32N149W. The
pressure gradient between this feature and the equatorial trough
is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of 06N and west of
120W. Seas over this area are mainly in the 6-9 ft range.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with seas in the 5-6 ft
range. 

For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken
through Thu in response to an approaching cold front. Fresh NE 
to E winds from 07N to 22N and W of 122W will diminish to 
moderate speeds by Wed morning. A new set of NW swell is forecast
to affect the NW forecast waters on Fri as a result of the
passage of the cold front. Otherwise, cross-equatorial southerly
swell is forecast to propagate through the waters from 03.4S to 
01N and between the Galapagos Islands and 108W through midweek.

$$
AL