000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest coast of Colombia near 06N77W to 04N100W to 06N122W. The ITCZ extends from 06N122W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N and E of 97W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 01N to 07N between 100W and 112W and from 06N to 12N W of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure ridging continues to extend across the Baja California peninsula offshore waters providing moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft, except for 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia due to NW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are noted across most of the Gulf of California, except for moderate to fresh SW to W winds north of 27N. Seas remain 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, except near the entrance of the Gulf where seas of 4-5 ft prevail. Across the rest of the S and SW Mexico offshores, gentle to locally moderate NW winds prevail with seas in the 3-6 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds west of Baja California will continue into Tue morning with locally strong winds SW of Cabo San Lucas through late today. Light to gentle winds will then continue through late Thu when the development of a surface trough along the Baja Peninsula and the Gulf of California will lead to gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California Norte through Fri. Northwest swell affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will reach Baja California Sur on Thu before subsiding Thu night. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds will dominate through Wed night and increase to moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Fri. A potential Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force event could begin Fri morning and continue through late Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the Central and South American offshore waters with seas in the range of 2-4 ft, except west of Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands where seas are in the 4-7 ft range in S to SW swell. Moderate NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across the Panama, Costa Rica and Colombia offshores. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will continue in the Papagayo region through the week. Mainly light to gentle variable winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week. Seas over the forecast waters will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1029 mb high centered NW of the area extends a ridge SE to the NW forecast waters and the offshore waters of Baja California. This is permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions mainly N of 11N and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 07N and west of about 120W. Recent altimeter data show seas in the 8-9 ft range, resulting from the combination of wind-waves and NW swell. For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken through Thu in response to an approaching cold front. Fresh NE to E winds from 07N to 22N and W of 122W will diminish to moderate speeds by Wed morning. A new set of NW swell is forecast to affect the NW forecast waters on Fri as a result of the passage of the cold front. Otherwise, cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate through the waters from 03.4S to 01N and between the Galapagos Islands and 108W through midweek. $$ Ramos