000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040402
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia to the coast at 
04N77W to 04N100W to 06N120W. The ITCZ extends from 06N120W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 09N 
and E of 110W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 06N to
12N between 119W and 124W and from 06N to 13N W of 136W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure ridging continues to extend across the Baja
California peninsula offshores providing moderate to locally
fresh northwest winds and seas of 5-7 ft, increasing to 8 ft N of
Punta Eugenia tonight due to NW swell. Light to gentle variable 
winds are noted across most of the Gulf of California, except for
moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 29N. Seas remain 1-3 
ft. Seas of 4-5 ft are noted near the entrance of the Gulf. 
Across the rest of the Mexico offshores, gentle to moderate NW winds
prevail with 4-6 ft seas in NW swell.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area well 
into the upcoming week. Fresh to locally strong winds west of 
Baja California will continue into Mon night. Winds will diminish
to gentle speeds Tue through Sat. Northwest swell will reach the
offshore Baja California Norte waters tonight and Baja 
California Sur by Tue morning. In the Gulf of California, light 
to gentle winds will prevail through Wed, increasing moderate to 
fresh by Thu night. A potential Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force 
event could begin Fri and continue through Sat night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the Central and 
South American offshore waters with seas in the range of 2-4 ft,
except west of Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands where seas
are in the 4-7 ft range in south to southwest swell. Moderate to
locally fresh NE to E winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo with seas
to 5 ft. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is noted 
across the Panama, Costa Rica and Colombia offshores. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue
in the Papagayo region through early Mon. Winds will diminish to
gentle to moderate through the rest of the week. Mainly gentle 
winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through 
the upcoming week. Seas over the forecast waters will be mainly 
driven by a moderate south to southwest swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The subtropical ridge north of the tropical Pacific dominates 
the basin. This is permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions
outside of the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh northeast trade 
winds prevail from 09N to 20N west of about 115W. Another area 
of fresh winds are noted N of 28N between 126W and 130W. This is 
the result of the pressure gradient associated with the high 
pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics. The combination
of wind-waves and northeast swell is resulting in 7-9 ft seas 
within the area of fresh northeast trades.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge is forecast to weaken 
while shifting eastward over the next few days in response to an
approaching cold front. The area of fresh northeast winds will  
expand eastward tonight through Tue. The large set of mixed 
northeast and northwest swell will continue propagating south and
east across the waters through midweek. Seas will range 8-11 ft,
with the highest expected in the northeast part of the area near
the Baja California offshores. Cross-equatorial southerly swell 
is forecast to propagate through the waters from 03.4S to 01N and
between the Galapagos Islands and 108W tonight through midweek.

$$
Ramos