000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040245
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Apr 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia to the coast at 
04N77W to 04N100W to 06N120W. The ITCZ extends from 06N120W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 09N 
and E of 110W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 06N to
12N between 119W and 124W and from 06N to 13N W of 136W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure continues to extend across the Mexico offshores. 
The latest ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate northwest winds 
off the west coast of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh 
winds are likely off the Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes 
coasts. Northwest swell propagating through the offshore waters 
is producing seas of 5-7 ft offshore Baja California and Cabo 
Corrientes. Light to gentle variable winds are noted across most 
of the Gulf of California, except for moderate to fresh south to 
southwest winds north of 30N. Seas remain 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft 
seas near the fresh winds in the northern Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft 
are noted near the entrance of the Gulf. Across the rest of the 
Mexico offshores, light to gentle winds prevail with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area well 
into the upcoming week. Winds west of Baja California will 
increase to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight and continue 
into Mon night. Winds will diminish to gentle speeds Tue through
Sat. Northwest swell will reach the offshore Baja California 
waters tonight, reaching Baja California Sur by Tue morning. In 
the Gulf of California, winds will increase to fresh tonight. 
Light to gentle winds will prevail through Wed, increasing
moderate to fresh by Thu night. A potential Gulf of Tehuantepec
gale-force event could begin Fri and continue through Sat night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds prevail across the Central and South
American offshore waters this afternoon. Seas range 4-6 ft in
mostly south to southwest swell. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted off the Panama and Costa Rica
offshores, N of 04N between 84W and 87W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted off the El Salvador and Guatemala offshores,
N of 11N between 88W and 93W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will pulse
briefly in the Papagayo region tonight. Winds will diminish to 
gentle to moderate through the rest of the week. Mainly light to
gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters 
through the week with seas ranging 4-6 ft. These seas will mainly
be driven by a moderate south to southwest swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The subtropical ridge north of the tropical Pacific dominates 
the basin. This is permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions
outside of the deep tropics. The latest ASCAT pass depicted
moderate to fresh northeast trade winds occurring from 09N to 
20N west of about 115W. Another area of fresh winds are noted
N of 28N between 126W and 130W. This is the result of the 
pressure gradient associated with the high pressure and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics. The combination of wind-waves 
and northeast swell is resulting in 7-9 ft seas within the area 
of fresh northeast trades.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge is forecast to weaken 
while shifting eastward over the next few days in response to an
approaching cold front. The area of fresh northeast winds will  
expand eastward tonight through Tue. The large set of mixed 
northeast and northwest swell will continue propagating south and
east across the waters through midweek. Seas will range 8-11 ft,
with the highest expected in the northeast part of the area near
the Baja California offshores. Cross- equatorial southerly swell
is forecast to propagate through the waters from 03.4S to 01N 
and between the Galapagos Islands and 108W tonight through 
midweek.

$$
Ramos