000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Apr 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia to the coast at 04N77W to a 1010 mb low near 05N90W to a 1011 mb low near 05N100W to 09N115W. The ITCZ extends from 09N115W to 06N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N and E of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure is present over these offshore waters. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are over the offshore waters west of Baja California. Northwest swell propagating through the offshore waters is producing seas of 5-7 ft offshore Baja California. Gentle southeast to south winds are over the Gulf of California, except for moderate to fresh south to southwest winds north of 30N. Seas in the Gulf of California remain at 2-3 ft with 3-4 ft seas near the fresh winds in the northern Gulf. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted near the entrance of the Gulf. Across the rest of the Mexico offshores, moderate winds are noted near Cabo Corrientes with light to gentle winds elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area well into the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds west of Baja California will increase to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight and continue into Mon night. Winds will diminish to mainly gentle speeds Tue through Thu. Northwest swell will reach the offshore Baja California waters early Mon morning. The 8 ft leading edge of the swell is expected to spread southward across the northern portions of Baja California Sur on Tue. In the Gulf of California, winds will become gentle later today, pulsing to fresh again tonight. Light to gentle winds will prevail through Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending northward to the extreme Nicaraguan offshore waters. Seas in this region are in the 4-5 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf of Panama are in the 3-5 ft range due to south to southwest swell. Across the rest of the offshores, seas are in the 4-5 ft range within a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue in the Papagayo region through early Mon. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate through the rest of the week. Mainly gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through the upcoming week. Seas over the forecast waters will be mainly driven by a moderate south to southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The subtropical ridge north of the tropical Pacific dominates the basin. This is permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. Fresh northeast trade winds are occurring from 06N to 26N west of about 130W and from 08N to 20N between 120W-130W. This is the result of the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics. The combination of northeast wind waves with northeast swell is resulting in 6-9 ft seas within this area of fresh northeast trades. Fresh to strong north winds north of the discussion area are generating northerly swell that is producing seas of 7-9 ft north of 28N and between 122W-128W. Moderate or lighter trade winds and 5-7 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge is forecast to shift eastward today in response to an approaching cold front from the west. The area of fresh northeast winds is expected to expand eastward in coverage tonight through early Tue. A large set of mixed northeast and northwest swell will propagate through the waters through early Tue. Seas resulting from the combination of waves are forecast to be in the range of 8-11 ft, with the highest expected in the northeast part of the area. Cross- equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate through the waters from 03.4S to 01N and between the Galapagos Islands and 108W beginning this evening and will continue through midweek. It is possible that weak low pressure may form along the ITCZ near 08N and from the general area between 122W-126W in the short-term. $$ AReinhart