000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Apr 03 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia to the coast at 07N78W and continues to 04N85W to 04N94W to 05N100W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N107W to 09N114W to 06N126W to 07N123W to 05N135W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the trough between 86W- 88W and between 89W-91W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 116W-118W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 114W-116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure is present over these offshore waters. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are over the offshore waters west of Baja California, except for fresh winds within 120 nm of the coast from 17N-19N per an overnight ASCAT data pass over this area. Northwest swell propagating through the offshore waters is producing seas of 5-7 ft offshore Baja California. Gentle southeast to south winds are over the Gulf of California, except for moderate to fresh south to southwest winds north of 30N. Seas in this area remain at 2-3 ft, except for higher seas of 4-7 ft at the entrance of the Gulf. Seas elsewhere are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area well into the upcoming week. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds west of Baja California will increase to fresh speeds tonight and continue into Mon night, except Tue for the waters west of Baja California Norte. Thereafter, winds will diminish to mainly gentle speeds. Northwest swell will reach the offshore Baja California Norte waters on Mon, with the 8 ft leading edge approaching Punta Eugenia on Tue while expanding southeastward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending northward to the extreme Nicaraguan offshore waters. Seas in this region are in the 4-6 ft range. The latest ASCAT data pass over the Gulf of Panama highlighted light to gentle north winds that reach south to near the coast of Colombia at 03N78W. Seas in the Gulf of Panama are in the 3-5 ft range due to south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, mainly light and variable winds are noted, except for gentle south to southeast winds south of 02N. Seas elsewhere are in the 4-6 ft range also due to a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue in in the Papagayo region through early Mon, then diminishing to gentle to moderate through the upcoming week. Mainly gentle winds are expected over these waters through the upcoming week. Seas over the forecast waters be be mainly driven by a moderate south to southwest swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The subtropical ridge located well north of the tropical Pacific dominates the basin, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. Fresh northeast trade winds are occurring from 06N to 26N west of about 134W and from 08N to 20N between 125W-134W. This is the result of the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics. The combination of northeast wind waves with northeast swell is resulting in 7-9 ft seas within this area of fresh northeast trades. Fresh to strong north winds north of the discussion are generating northerly swell that is producing seas of 7-9 ft north of 29N and between 122W-128W. Moderate or lighter trade winds and 5-7 ft seas are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge is forecast to shift eastward on Sun in response to an approaching cold front from the west. The area of fresh northeast winds is expected then to expand some eastward in coverage from late Sun through early Tue. A large set of mixed northeast and northwest swell will propagate through the waters through early Tue. Seas resulting from the combination of waves are forecast to be in the range of 8-11 ft, with the highest expected in the northeast part of the area. Cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate through the waters from 03.4S to 01N and between the Galapagos Islands and 108W beginning this evening. It is possible that weak low pressure may form along the ITCZ near 08N and from the general area between 122W-126W in the short-term. $$ Aguirre