000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030943 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Apr 03 2022

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America,
Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia to the coast at 
07N78W and continues to 04N82W to 05N99W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N108W to 
09N115W to 06N127W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 30 nm within of the ITCZ 
between 113W-117W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N
to 12N between 120W-125W, also within 120 nm south of the ITCZ 
between 93W-96W, within 90 nm south of the trough between 86W-89W
and between 90W-92W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure is present over these offshore waters. Gentle to
moderate northwest winds are over the offshore waters west of 
Baja California. Northwest swell propagating through the offshore 
waters is bringing 6-8 ft seas north of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 
5-7 ft are present between Punta Eugenia and Los Cabos. Gentle 
southeast to south winds are over the Gulf of California, except 
for moderate to fresh south to southwest winds north of 30N. 
Seas in this area remain at 2-3 ft, except for higher seas 
of 4-6 ft at the entrance of the Gulf. Seas elsewhere are in 
the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the 
weather conditions across the region into next week. Gentle to 
moderate northwest to north winds will prevail through Sun. Fresh
northwest winds will then develop Sun night over the offshore 
waters of Baja California and last early Tue. Winds will then 
diminish Tue through at least Thu. Northwest swell will reach the
offshore Baja California Norte waters on Mon, with the 8 ft 
leading edge approaching Punta Eugenia on Tue while expanding 
southeastward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected

Satellite imagery shows that the earlier convection that was 
sections of Costa Rica and Panama has dissipated. Latest ASCAT 
data shows moderate to fresh northeast to east winds across the 
Papagayo region, extending to the Nicaraguan coastal waters. Seas
in this region are in the 4-6 ft range. The latest ASCAT data 
captured a portion of the Gulf of Panama, indicating light to 
gentle north to northeast winds there. Seas in the Gulf of Panama
are in the 4-6 ft range. Elsewhere, mainly light and variable 
winds are noted, except for gentle southeast winds south of 02N. 
Seas elsewhere are also in the 4-6 ft range due to a south to 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue
in in the Papagayo region through early Mon, then diminishing to
gentle to moderate through the upcoming week. Mainly gentle 
winds are expected over these waters through the upcoming week. 
Seas over the forecast waters will be mainly driven by a 
moderate south to southwest swell.

elsewhere through early next week, except for 
moderate north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama Sat 
night. Seas will be dominated primarily by a moderate south 
swell. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The subtropical ridge located well north of the tropical Pacific
dominates the basin, permitting fairly tranquil weather
conditions outside of the deep tropics. Fresh northeast trade 
winds are occurring from 06N to 24N west of about 134W and from 
08N to 21N between 125W-134W. This is the result of the pressure 
gradient associated with the high pressure and lower pressures in
the deep tropics. The combination of northeast wind waves with 
northeast swell is resulting in 7-9 ft seas within this area of 
fresh northeast trades.

Fresh to strong north winds north of the discussion are
generating northerly swell that is producing seas of 6-8 ft seas
north of 29N and between the offshore waters of Baja California 
Norte and 129W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas in the 5-7 ft 
range are found elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge is forecast to shift 
eastward on Sun in response to an approaching cold front from the
west. The area of fresh northeast winds is expected then to 
expand some eastward in coverage from late Sun through early Tue.
A large set of mixed northeast and northwest swell will 
propagate through the waters through early Tue. Seas resulting 
from the combination of waves are forecast to be in the range of
8-11 ft, with the highest expected in the northeast part of the 
area. Cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate 
through the waters from 03.4S to 01N and between the Galapagos
Islands and 108W beginning on Sun evening.

$$
Aguirre