000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022119 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Apr 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2055 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from eastern Panama near 08N78W to 05N88W to 05N99W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N99W to 06N110W to 09N116W. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near 08N121W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N126W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 07N and between 82W and 107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 11N and between 113W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1031 mb high pressure system is centered near 36N140W and dominates most of the tropical NE Pacific. A recent scatterometer satellite pass (ASCAT) indicate that gentle to moderate NW winds are found in the offshore waters west of Baja California. NW swell in the region is supporting 6-8 ft seas N of Punta Eugenia. Seas of 4-6 ft are present between Punta Eugenia and offshore Los Cabos area, as depicted by altimeter satellite data from a couple hours ago. ASCAT also captured the Gulf of California and show gentle to locally moderate southerly winds. Seas in this area remain 2-4 ft, with the highest seas occurring at the entrance of the gulf. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the weather conditions across the region into next week. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through Sun. Fresh NW winds will then develop Sun night over the offshore waters of Baja California and last early Tue. Winds will then diminish Tue through at least Thu. A NW swell event will reach the offshore Baja California Norte waters on Mon, with the 8 ft leading edge approaching Punta Eugenia on Tue while expanding SE. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Satellite imagery depict fairly clear skies across the Papagayo region and Gulf of Panama. Afternoon convection is developing over parts of Costa Rica and Panama, but the activity remains inland. ASCAT show moderate to fresh NE-E winds across the Papagayo region, extending to the Nicaraguan coastal waters. Seas in this region remain at 4-6 ft. ASCAT captured a portion of the Gulf of Panama, indicating light to gentle N-NE winds. However, it is likely that moderate NE winds persist near the Azuero peninsula to 05N. Seas in the area described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere N of 02N, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. S of 02N, gentle to locally moderate S-SE winds and seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will prevail through Sun afternoon, diminishing to gentle to moderate through the upcoming week. Mainly gentle winds are expected elsewhere through early next week, except for moderate north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama Sat night. Seas will be dominated primarily by a moderate south swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The subtropical ridge located well north of the tropical Pacific dominates the basin, permitting fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. A recent ASCAT pass depict fresh NE trades from 06N to 17N and W of 130W. This is the result of the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics. A combination of NE wind waves and NE swell results in 7-9 ft seas in the area described. Farther north, fresh to strong N winds north of our area are producing a northerly swell that results in 7-9 ft seas N of 20N and between the offshore waters of Baja California and 130W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas in the 5-7 ft range are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge is forecast to shift eastward on Sun in response to an approaching cold front from the west. The area of fresh northeast winds is expected then to expand some eastward in coverage from late Sun through early Tue. A large set of mixed northeast and northwest swell will propagate through the waters through early Tue. Seas resulting from the combination of waves are forecast to be in the range of 8-11 ft, with the highest expected in the northeast part of the area. $$ DELGADO