000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Apr 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from eastern Panama near 07N78W to 05N89W to 05N100W. The ITCZ then stretches from 05N100W to 07N117W to 05N130W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from the Equator to 07N and between 81W and 104W. Similar convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 113W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO An expansive surface ridge is found well to the northwest of our area, but its influence extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo islands and Baja California. Gentle to locally moderate NW-N winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja California, along with seas of 7-9 ft N of Punta Eugenia and 5-8 ft elsewhere. Gentle to occasionally moderate southerly winds are found in the Gulf of California, with seas of 2-4 ft. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle breezes and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather conditions across the region into next week. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds will prevail through Sun. Fresh NW winds will then develop Sun night over the offshore waters of Baja California and last through Mon night. Two sets of northwest swell events will increase seas over the waters west of Baja California. One of these will arrive by early Mon, with the next one expected on Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are affecting the waters in the Papagayo region to 90W and northward into the Nicaraguan coastal waters. Seas in the area are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to locally moderate N-NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama and extends south of the Peninsula of Azuero to 05N. Seas in the area described are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere N of 02N, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. S of 02N, gentle to moderate S-SE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong easterly winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by early this afternoon, change little through Sun afternoon, then become light and variable Sun night and mainly gentle winds through the upcoming week. Mainly gentle winds are expected elsewhere through early next week, except for moderate north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama Sat night. Seas will be dominated primarily by a moderate south swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The aforementioned subtropical ridge of 1030 mb located near 38N140W dominates the rest of the tropical Pacific, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. Fresh northeast trades are occurring from 06N to 20N and W of 127W. The combination of northerly swell with northeast wind waves is resulting in seas of 8-9 ft in this area. Fresh north winds and northwest swell are present north of about 27N and between 122W and 131W, with seas of 8-11 ft. The 8 ft seas associated with this swell have spread as far south as 23N. Moderate or weaker winds and seas in the 6-8 ft range are found elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the strong high pressure that is well to the northwest of the area will begin to shift eastward on Sun in response to an approaching cold front from the west. This will allow for the area of fresh northeast winds to expand some eastward in coverage from late Sun through late Mon. A large set of mixed northeast and northwest swell will propagate through the waters, namely northwest of a line from near 29N117W to 18N125W and to 06N140W through late Mon. Seas resulting from the combination of waves from the fresh northeast trade winds and the swell are expected to be in the range of 8-11 ft, with the highest of the seas expected in the northeast part of the area. Southerly swell bringing max seas of 8 or 9 ft is forecast to move into the waters from 03.4S to 02S and between 94W-103W starting Sun night. $$ DELGADO