000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020934
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 02 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from southern Panama near 08N78W to
05N90W to 05N100W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates 
that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N110W to 
06N121W to 05N130W and to beyond to 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm north of the ITCZ
between 124W-126W and within 60 nm north of the of the ITCZ 
between 126W-131W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 
nm north of the ITCZ between 118W-126W, and within 60 nm south
of the trough between 94W-96W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1032 mb high 
pressure center that is located well northwest of the area to 
30N140W and to near 21N120W. Gentle to moderate northwest
to north are west of Baja California. Gentle or weaker winds are
occurring elsewhere. Northwest swell is propagating through the 
waters offshore Baja California Norte producing seas of 7-10 ft. 
This swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft off Baja California Sur. 
Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, except for higher seas
of 4-6 ft over the waters at the entrance to the Gulf of 
California. Similar seas are over the elsewhere waters.
 
For the forecast, little change is expected to the weather 
pattern into next week as high pressure remains to the northwest 
of the area, maintaining a broad subtropical ridge extending 
southeastward across the offshore waters of Mexico. Northwest 
swell to the west of Baja California will subside today. Gentle 
to moderate northwest to north winds are west of Baja California.
By early Sun evening, fresh northwest winds will develop over 
the remainder of the offshore waters west of Baja California. 
These winds are forecast to continue through Mon night. Two sets 
of northwest swell will increase seas over the waters west of 
Baja California. One of these will arrive by early Mon, with the 
next one expected on Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over the waters 
between south of the Equator between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands as seen in an overnight ASCAT pass. Fresh to strong 
northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region, 
including the offshore waters of southern Nicaragua out to 
about 120 nm. Gentle or weaker winds remain elsewhere. An 
altimeter data pass from 06Z shows seas of 5-7 ft over the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. These seas are 
primarily being driven by a moderate south swell. Elsewhere, seas
are in the 3-6 ft range.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds in
the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish slightly to fresh 
speeds by early this afternoon, change little through Sun 
afternoon, then become light and variable Sun night and mainly 
gentle winds through the upcoming week. Mainly gentle winds are 
expected elsewhere through early next week, except for moderate 
north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama Sat night. Seas 
will be dominated primarily by a moderate south swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical northeast Pacific remains under the influence of a 
subtropical ridge anchored by strong high pressure of 1032 mb 
located well northwest of the area. Fresh northeast trade winds 
are occurring from 06N to 27N and west of about 127W. The 
combination of northerly swell with northeast wind waves is 
resulting in seas of 8-9 ft in this area. Mainly moderate winds 
are elsewhere from 06N to 25N between 120W and 140W.
 
Fresh north winds and northwest swell are present north of about
27N between 122W-131W, with seas of 8-11 ft due to a northwest 
swell. The 8 ft seas associated with this swell have spread as 
far south as 23N. Fairly tranquil weather conditions continue 
elsewhere across the basin, with moderate or weaker winds and 
seas in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure that is well to 
the northwest of the area will begin to shift eastward on Sun
in response to an approaching cold front from the west. This 
will allow for the area of fresh northeast trade winds to expand 
some eastward in coverage from late Sun through late Mon. A large
set of mixed northeast and northwest swell will propagate through
the waters, namely northwest of a line from near 29N117W to 
18N125W and to 06N140W through late Mon. Seas resulting from the 
combination of waves from the fresh northeast trade winds and the
swell are expected to be in the range of 8-11 ft, with the 
highest of the seas expected in the northeast part of the area.

$$
Aguirre