000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020847 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 02 2022

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from southern Panama near 08N78W to
05N90W to 05N100W, where latest scatterometer data indicates 
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 09N110W to 06N121W to 05N130W
and to beyond to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W-128W 
and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 119W-121W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 
122W-125W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 128W-132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1033 mb high 
pressure center that is located well northwest of the area to
30N140W and to near 21N120W. Gentle to moderate northwest winds 
are west of Baja California, except for fresh northwest winds 
east of 114W between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle 
or weaker winds are occurring elsewhere. Northwest swell is 
propagating through the waters offshore Baja California Norte 
producing seas of 7-10 ft. This swell is producing seas of 6-9 
ft off Baja California Sur. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of 
California and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
 
For the forecast, little change is expected to the weather 
pattern into next week as high pressure remains to the northwest 
of the area, maintaining a broad subtropical ridge extending 
southeastward across the offshore waters of Mexico. Northwest 
swell to the west of Baja California will linger through Sat 
morning before subsiding. By early on Sun evening, fresh 
northwest winds will develop over the remainder of the offshore 
waters west of Baja California. These winds are forecast to 
continue through Mon night. Two sets of NW swell will increase 
seas over the waters west of Baja California. One of these will 
arrive by early on Mon, with the next one expected on Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate southeast winds are over the waters between 
south of the Equator between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 
Moderate northeast winds are near the coast of southern 
Nicaragua. Gentle or weaker winds remain elsewhere. An altimeter 
data pass from 00Z shows seas of 5-6 ft over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. These seas are primarily 
being driven by a moderate south swell. Elsewhere, seas are in 
the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate northeast to east winds in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region early tonight will pulse to fresh to strong 
later tonight into Sat morning and diminish slightly to fresh 
speeds through Sun afternoon, and to gentle to moderate speeds 
Sun night. These winds will change little through the middle of 
the upcoming week. Mainly gentle winds are expected elsewhere 
through early next week, except for moderate north to northeast 
winds in the Gulf of Panama Sat night. Seas will be dominated 
primarily by a moderate south swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical northeast Pacific remains under the influence of a 
subtropical ridge anchored by strong high pressure of 1033 mb 
located well northwest of the area. Fresh northeast trade winds 
are occurring from 06N to 27N and west of about 127W. The 
combination of northwest to north swell with northeast wind waves
is resulting in seas of 8-9 ft in this area. Mainly moderate 
winds are elsewhere from 06N to 25N between 120W and 140W.
 
Fresh north winds and northwest swell are present north of 27N 
between 122W-131W, with seas of 8-11 ft due to a northwest swell.
The 8 ft seas associated with this swell have now spread as far 
south as 23N. Fairly tranquil weather conditions continue 
elsewhere across the basin, with moderate or weaker winds and 
seas in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the region 
through the weekend maintaining fresh trade winds west of about 
125W. The northwest swell will continue over the waters east of 
130W and north of 23N through early Sat before subsiding. A 
large set of new northwest swell will begin to move through the 
northwest part of the area Sat night. It is forecast to 
propagate across the open waters Sun through early next week.

$$
Aguirre