000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012104
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from southern Panama near 08N78W to
05N84W to 05N99W. The ITCZ continues from 05N99W to 07N112W to 
05N127W to 05N130W. A surface trough from 08N129W to 03N133W
splits the ITCZ. The ITCZ resumes from 05N136W to 05N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 150 nm of the
ITCZ between 115W and 132W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 88W, from 00N to 04N
between 91W and 101W, and from 03N to 09N between 132W and 138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1028 mb high
pressure located well northwest of the area near 34N138W. A 
recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows moderate northwest winds 
to the west of Baja California. Gentle or weaker winds are 
occurring elsewhere. Northwest swell is propagating through the 
waters offshore Baja California Norte producing seas of 7-10 ft.
This swell is producing seas of 6-9 ft off Baja California Sur.
Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
 
For the forecast, little change is expected to the weather 
pattern into next week as high pressure remains to the northwest 
of the area, maintaining a broad subtropical ridge extending SE 
across the regional waters of Mexico. Northwest swell to the west
of Baja California will linger through Sat morning before
subsiding. Fresh NW winds will develop by late Sun to the west 
of Baja California and persist through Mon night. Two sets of NW
swell will increase seas over the waters west of Baja California.
One of these will arrive by early Mon, with the next one arriving
on Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate SSE winds are noted in recent ASCAT satellite data south
of the Equator, between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Moderate winds are also likely occurring near the coast of
southern Nicaragua. Gentle or weaker winds prevail elsewhere.
Recent altimeter data from 01/1530 UTC shows seas of 5-6 ft
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. These seas are
primarily caused by moderate S swell. Elsewhere, seas are in the
3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region through Sun, mainly confined 
to the near shore waters. Mainly gentle winds are expected 
elsewhere through early next week, except for locally moderate at
times, in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. Seas will be 
dominated primarily by moderate south swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical NE Pacific remains under the influence of a subtropical
ridge anchored by strong high pressure of 1028 mb located north 
of the area near 34N138W. Fresh northeast trade winds are 
occurring from 06N to 22N and west of 134W. The combination of 
northwest to north swell with northeast wind waves is resulting 
in seas of 8-9 ft in this area. Mainly moderate winds are
elsewhere from 06N to 25N between 120W and 140W.
 
Fresh north winds and northwest swell are present north of 27N 
and east of 130W, with seas of 8-11 ft. The 8 ft seas associated
with this swell have now spread as far south as 24N. Fairly 
tranquil weather conditions continue elsewhere across the basin, 
with moderate or weaker winds and seas in the 6-8 ft range.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the region
through the weekend, maintaining fresh trade winds west of about
125W. The northwest swell will continue over the waters east of 
130W and north of 23N through early Sat before subsiding. A 
large set of new northwest swell will begin to move through the 
northwest part of the area Sat night. It is forecast to propagate
across the open waters Sun through early next week.

$$
Hagen