000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010938 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Apr 01 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Colombia/Panama border near 07N78W to 05N90W to 04N100W to 05N107W, where overnight scatterometer data shows that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N115W to 05N122W to 05N130W and to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 139W-135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 81W-82W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 78W- 79W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 124W-127W, within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W-117W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W-139W and between 105W-108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and lower pressure over the southwestern United States is supporting moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Northwest swell is propagating through the waters well offshore Baja California Norte producing seas of 6-9 ft. Winds off Baja California Sur are moderate northwest to north, with seas of 5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas of 6-7 ft currently extend as far south as the Mexican state of Michoacan. Seas of 5-6 ft are present from Guerrero to the Tehuantepec region. Relatively seas of 1-2 ft are in the Gulf of California, except for 3-5 ft seas at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, little change is expected to the weather pattern into next week as high pressure remains to the northwest of the area, maintaining a broad subtropical ridge extending SE across the regional waters of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh north to northwest winds will continue over the Baja offshore waters through early Fri, then diminish through the weekend as the high pressure weakens. Northwest swell over the Baja California Norte waters will linger into early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region off southern Nicaragua. Seas in that area are reaching 5 ft as noted in the latest altimeter data pass. Gentle or weaker winds are elsewhere along with seas of 3-6 ft. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, as seen on satellite imagery, are confined over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and southward from there. Recently developed clusters of scattered thunderstorms are along and within 90 nm west of the coast of northern Panama as well as over the Gulf Panama. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through Sun, mainly confined to the near shore waters. Light to gentle and variable winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Mainly gentle winds are expected elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Seas will be dominated primarily by moderate south swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The tropical NE Pacific remains under the influence of a subtropical ridge anchored by strong high pressure of 1030 mb located well north of the area near 36N139W. Fresh northeast trade winds are occurring from 06N to 28N and west of 122W. The combination of northwest to north swell with northeast wind waves is resulting in seas of 8-9 ft across that area. An overnight altimeter data pass detected seas of 8-9 ft roughly along 139W from 19N to 25N and just west of 140W. Fresh north winds and northwest swell are present north of 27N and east of 133W, with seas of 8-11 ft. Fairly tranquil weather conditions continue elsewhere across the basin, with moderate or weaker winds and seas ion range of 6-8 ft. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the region through the weekend, maintaining a large region of fresh trade winds west of about 124W. The northwest swell will continue to infiltrate the waters east of 130W, with seas 8 ft and higher reaching to near 24N on Sat. A large set of northwest swell will begin to move through the northwest part of the area Sat night. It is forecast to propagate across the open waters Sun through early next week. $$ Aguirre