000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Apr 01 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the Colombia/Panama border near
07N78W to 05N90W to 04N100W to TO 05N107W, where latest 
scatterometer data shows that it transitions to the ITCZ and
continues to 05N107W to 06N115W to 05N122W to 05N130W and 
to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 
129W-140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 114W-120W, and within 120 nm north
of the ITCZ between 113W-119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and 
lower pressure over the southwestern United States is supporting 
moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds across the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Northwest swell 
is propagating through the waters well offshore Baja California 
Norte producing seas of 6-9 ft. Winds off Baja California Sur 
are moderate northwest to north, with seas of 5-7 ft. Mainly 
gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere offshore Mexico. 
Seas of 6-7 ft currently extend as far south as the Mexican 
state of Michoacan. Seas of 5-6 ft are present from Guerrero to 
the Tehuantepec region. Relatively seas of 1-2 ft are in the 
Gulf of California, except for 3-5 ft seas at the entrance to 
the Gulf.

For the forecast, little change is expected to the weather
pattern into next week as high pressure remains to the northwest
of the area, maintaining a broad subtropical ridge extending SE 
across the regional waters of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh 
north to northwest winds will continue over the Baja offshore 
waters through early Fri, then diminish through the weekend as 
the high pressure weakens. Northwest swell over the Baja 
California Norte waters today will linger into early Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region off 
southern Nicaragua. Seas in that area are reaching 5 ft as noted
in the latest altimeter data pass. Gentle or weaker winds are 
elsewhere along with seas of 3-6 ft. 

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen on 
satellite imagery to be confined over the waters offshore Costa 
Rica and southward from there.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region through Sun, mainly confined 
to the near shore waters. Light to gentle and variable winds will
continue across the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Mainly gentle 
winds are expected elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Seas 
will be dominated primarily by moderate south swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical NE Pacific remains under the influence of a subtropical
ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center well north of
the area near 36N136W. Fresh northeast trade winds are occurring
from 06N to 23N and west of 122W. The combination of northwest 
to north swell with northeast wind waves is resulting in seas
of 8-10 ft across that area. Fresh north winds and northwest 
swell are present north of 27N and east of 133W, with seas of 
8-10 ft. Fairly tranquil weather conditions continue elsewhere 
across the basin, with moderate or weaker winds and seas ion 
range of 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the region
through the weekend, maintaining a large region of fresh trade
winds west of about 124W. The northwest swell will continue to 
infiltrate the waters east of 130W, with seas 8 ft and higher 
reaching to near 24N on Sat. A large set of northwest swell
will begin to move through the northwest part of the area Sat 
night. It is forecast to propagate across the open waters Sun 
through early next week.

$$
Aguirre