000 AXPZ20 KNHC 312105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Colombia/Panama border near 07N78W to 10N86W to 06N108W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N108W to 07N115W to 05N122W to 06N131W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 92W, from 01N to 06N between 92W and 113W, and from 03N to 10N between 113W and 121W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 04N to 07N between 131W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The gradient between high pressure northwest of the area and lower pressure over the southwestern United States is supporting moderate to fresh NW-NNW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, as shown in recent scatterometer wind data. A new NW well is pushing into the waters well offshore Baja California Norte, and seas are now 7-9 ft in the area. Winds off Baja California Sur are moderate NW-N, with seas 6-7 ft. Mainly gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere offshore Mexico. Seas of 6-7 ft currently extend as far south as the Mexican state of Michoacan. Seas are 5-6 ft from Guerrero to the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California, except 3-5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, little change is expected to the weather pattern into next week as high pressure remains NW of the area, maintaining a broad subtropical ridge extending SE across the regional waters of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NNW winds will persist across the Baja offshore waters through early Fri, then diminish through the weekend as high pressure weakens. The new surge of NW swell that has moved into the Baja Norte waters today will persist through early Sat. Fresh W gap winds will briefly develop across the northern Gulf of California waters this evening through Fri morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR A recent scatterometer pass shows moderate gap winds spread across the Papagayo region off southern Nicaragua. Seas in the area are around 5 ft, as shown in an altimeter pass from 31/1600 UTC. Gentle or weaker winds are occurring elsewhere with 3-6 ft seas. See the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above for a description of convection occurring over the waters. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are expected across the Papagayo region through Sun, mainly confined to the near shore waters. Light to gentle and variable winds will continue across the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Mainly gentle winds are expected elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Seas will be dominated primarily by moderate S swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The tropical NE Pacific remains under the influence of a subtropical ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure center near 36N136W. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh NE tradewinds occurring from 06N to 23N and W of 125W. NW to N swell and NE winds waves combine to produce 8-10 ft seas across that area. Fresh N winds and NW swell are occurring north of 27N and east of 128W, with seas of 8-10 ft. Fairly tranquil weather conditions continue elsewhere across the basin, with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 6-8 ft. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the region through the weekend, maintaining a large region of fresh trades W of 125W. The NW swell will continue to infiltrate the waters east of 130W, with seas 8 ft and higher reaching as far south as 22N tonight through Sat. Large NW swell is expected to enter the NW waters late Sat, then spread across the open waters Sun through early next week. $$ Hagen