000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311535
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the Colombia/Panama border near
07N78W to 08N89W to 05N108W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N108W to
05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 00N to 08N between 77W and 96W, from 01N to 06N between 96W
and 115W, and from 03N to 09N between 115W and 124W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is seen from 03N to 08N between
127W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The gradient between a 1031 mb high pressure near 38N135W and
lower pressure over the southwestern United States is supporting
moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds across the offshore waters 
of Baja California. Seas are 7-8 ft west of Baja California.
However, new NW swell west of Baja California Norte is starting
to bring seas up to 9 ft now well offshore. Gentle to moderate
variable winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of
California. Moderate NW winds are likely occurring near Cabo
Corrientes, where seas are currently 6-8 ft offshore. Gentle or 
weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 5-7 ft generally prevail
from the Tehuantepec region to the state of Michoacan.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain NW of the area into 
next week to maintain a broad subtropical ridge extending SE 
across the regional waters. Moderate to locally fresh NNW winds 
will persist across the Baja offshore waters through early Fri, 
then diminish through the weekend as high pressure weakens. A new
surge of NW swell will move into the Baja Norte waters this
morning and persist through early Sat. Fresh W gap winds will 
develop across the Gulf of California waters this evening 
through Fri morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate gap winds are spread across the Papagayo region this
morning off southern Nicaragua. Seas in the area are 4-5 ft.
Gentle or weaker winds are occurring elsewhere with 3-6 ft seas.
See the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above for a description of
convection occurring over the waters.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region through Sun, mainly confined 
to the near shore waters. Light to gentle and variable winds will
continue across the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Mainly gentle
winds are expected elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Seas 
will be dominated primarily by moderate S swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical NE Pacific remains under the influence of a subtropical
ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure center near 38N135W.
Fresh NE tradewinds are occurring from 06N to 24N and W of 125W.
NW to N swell and NE winds waves combine to produce 8-9 ft seas 
across that area. Fresh N winds and new NW swell are entering the
area north of 27N and east of 127W, with seas of 8-10 ft. Fairly
tranquil weather conditions continue elsewhere across the basin,
with moderate or weaker winds and seas of 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the region
through the weekend, maintaining a large region of fresh trades 
W of 125W. The new surge of NW swell will continue to enter the 
NE waters today. Seas 8 ft and higher will prevail N of 20N and E
of 130W this afternoon through Sat. Large NW swell is expected 
to enter the NW waters late Sat, then spread across the open 
waters Sun into Mon.

$$
Hagen