000
AXPZ20 KNHC 311000
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from low pressure 1008 mb over NW
Colombia near 08.5N75W to 08N89W to 06N108W. The ITCZ stretches 
from 06N108W to 05N117W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 80W and 
97W, from 03N to 09N between 102W and 130W, and also from 04N to
07N between 131W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A broad ridge dominates the regional waters tonight, anchored on
a 1033 mb high center near 39N136W, and extends to just south of
the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate 
to locally fresh NW-N winds across the offshore waters of Baja 
California tonight. NW swell moving through the regional waters 
continues to slowly subside across the Baja Norte waters, and 
will peak at 8-9 ft across the Baja Sur waters to offshore of 
Cabo Corrientes this morning. Moderate to locally fresh NW to W 
winds prevail from offshore of Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel, 
where seas are 6-8 ft. Light to gentle winds are observed in the 
northern Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate NW winds 
are occurring across the rest of the basin. Seas in the northern 
portion of the gulf are 1-2 ft and 3-5 ft elsewhere. 

High pressure will remain NW of the area into next week to 
maintain a broad subtropical ridge extending SE across the 
regional waters. Moderate to locally fresh NNW winds will persist
across the Baja offshore waters through early Fri, then diminish
through the weekend as high pressure weakens. NW swell will 
continue to subside across area waters and diminish to near 7 ft 
this evening, while a new surge of NW swell will moves into the 
Baja Norte waters this morning through early Sat. Fresh to 
locally strong W gap winds will develop across the Gulf of 
California waters Thu evening through Fri morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to locally fresh gap winds spread across the Papagayo 
region tonight and extend downwind 90 nm from the southern coast 
of Nicaragua. Seas in the area are 4-6 ft. Overnight 
scatterometer satellite data showed gentle northerly winds across
most of the Gulf of Panama. Seas in the region are 3-5 ft in S 
swell. Elsewhere winds are variable less than 15 kt with seas of 
5-6 ft. A line of scattered moderate to strong convection is seen
extending from coastal portions of western Panama S-SW to 150 nm
offshore and drifting westward. 

Moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are expected across the
Papagayo region through Sun, mainly confined to the near shore 
waters. Moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
continue through tonight, then become variable and less than 15 
kt through Tue. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or 
weaker through the upcoming weekend. Seas will be dominated
primarily by moderate S swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical NE Pacific remains under the influence of a subtropical
ridge centered by a 1033 mb high center near 39N136W. Fairly 
tranquil weather conditions continue across the basin outside of 
the deep tropics and W of 110W. Overnight scatterometer satellite
data showed fresh NE tradewinds occurring from 06N to 24N and W 
of 125W. NW to N swell and NE waves combine to producing 8-10 ft 
seas across that area. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 7-9 
ft are found elsewhere in the basin.

The subtropical ridge will dominate the region through the 
weekend, and maintain a large region of fresh trades W of 125W. 
NW to N swell across the waters S of 27N will subside through 
this morning, as a new surge of NW swell enters the NE waters. 
Seas 8 ft and higher will prevail N of 20N and E of 130W Thu
afternoon through Sat. Large NW swell is expected to enter the 
NW waters late Sat.

$$
Stripling