000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310301
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Mar 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from low pressure 1006 mb over NW
Colombia near 08N74.5W to 08N89W to 06N102W. The ITCZ stretches 
from 06N102W to 06N120W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate 
to strong convection is noted from 00N to 06.5N between 82W and 
94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from
0.5S to 04N between 94W and 106W, and also from 03.5N to 10N W of
108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A broad high pressure ridge dominates the regional waters this
evening, anchored on a 1033 mb near 38N137W, and extends to just
beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. This has pushed the faint
remnants of an old frontal boundary into the tropics along 16N 
to 17N and associated dry stable air is creating fair weather 
conditions across the offshore waters of Mexico. Afternoon 
scatterometer satellite data depicted moderate to locally fresh 
NW-N winds in the offshore waters of Baja California. The large 
NW swell continues moving through the regional waters and is 
producing seas of 8-10 ft from offshore of Cabo Corrientes 
northward to Cabo San Lazaro, and 7 to 8 ft further northward. 
and 7-9 ft southward to offshore of Los Cabos. Light to gentle 
winds are observed in the northern Gulf of California, while 
gentle to moderate NW winds are occurring in the rest of the 
basin. Seas in the northern portion of the gulf are 1-2 ft and 
2-5 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate NW-W winds prevail across 
the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Seas in this region are 4-7 ft.

This broad subtropical ridge NW of the area will continue to 
build modestly across the regional waters through tonight. 
Primarily moderate to fresh NNW winds will persist across the 
Baja offshore waters through early Fri, then diminish through the
weekend as high pressure dominates. The large NW swell will 
continue to subside and diminish to near 7 ft on Thu before a new
surge of NW swell moves into the Baja Norte waters. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are present across the 
Papagayo region and extend only extend only 60 nm from the
southern coast of Nicaragua. Seas in the area are 4-5 ft.
Afternoon scatterometer satellite data showed light to gentle 
northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Current satellite imagery
shows that afternoon showers and thunderstorms over eastern 
Panama have ended. Seas in the region described are 3-5 ft. 
Elsewhere N of 02N, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
prevail. S of 02N, moderate S to SE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are 
prevalent.

Moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are expected across the
Papagayo region for the next few days and are expected to remain
confined to the near shore waters. Primarily moderate N-NE winds
in the Gulf of Panama will continue through tonight, then become
variable and less than 15 kt through Fri. Elsewhere, winds are 
forecast to be moderate or weaker the rest of this week and 
upcoming weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical Pacific remains under the dominance of the 1033 mb
subtropical ridge previously mentioned. Fairly tranquil weather
conditions continue across the basin outside of the deep 
tropics and W of 120W. Afternoon scatterometer satellite data 
indicated that fresh trades prevail from 06N to 25N and W of 
122W. NW-N swell is producing 8-11 ft seas across this area. 
Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 7-9 ft are found elsewhere 
in the basin.

The subtropical ridge will remain the main surface feature of 
interest through the weekend, allowing for a large region of 
fresh trades W of 125W. Seas across the waters N of 20N will 
diminish on Thu. However, a new surge of NW swell will enter the 
area on Thu, with the leading edge of 8 ft reaching 25N on Fri 
before diminishing on Sat.
  
$$
Stripling