000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302059
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2055 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N78W to
09N89W to 06N102W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N102W to 06N120W to
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 00N to 08N and between 81W and 97W. Scattered 
moderate convection is found from 04N to 10N and between 110W and
116W, and also from 04N to 10N and between 123W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The influence of an expansive high pressure system of 1032 mb 
near 38N138W extends to the Revillagigedo Islands, permitting 
fairly tranquil weather conditions across the offshore waters of 
Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict moderate to 
locally fresh NW-N winds in the offshore waters of Baja 
California. The large NW swell continues moving through the 
regional waters and it is producing seas of 8-10 ft from Cabo 
San Lazaro northward, and 7-9 ft southward to offshore of Los 
Cabos. Light to gentle breezes are observed in the northern Gulf 
of California, while gentle to moderate NW winds are occurring 
in the rest of the basin. Seas in the northern portion of the 
gulf are 1-2 ft and 2-5 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate NW-W 
winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in this region 
are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge NW of the area will 
continue to build modestly across the regional waters through 
tonight. Primarily moderate to fresh NNW winds will persist 
across the Baja offshore waters through early Fri, then diminish 
through the weekend as high pressure dominates. The elevated seas
will continue to subside and diminish to near 7 ft on Thu before
a new surge of NW swell moves into the Baja Norte waters. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are present in the Papagayo
region. Seas in the area remain at 4-6 ft. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass show light to gentle northerly winds in the Gulf
of Panama. Satellite imagery depict developing showers and
thunderstorms over eastern Panama, but only high cirrus clouds 
are found over the immediate waters. Seas in the region described
are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere N of 02N, moderate or weaker winds and 
seas of 4-6 ft prevail. S of 02N, moderate S to SE winds and seas
of 4-7 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh gap winds are 
expected across the Papagayo region for the next few days. 
Primarily moderate N-NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
continue through tonight, then become variable and less than 15 
kt through Fri. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or 
weaker the rest of this week and upcoming weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The tropical Pacific remains under the dominance of the 1032 mb
subtropical ridge previously mentioned. Fairly tranquil weather
conditions continue across the basin outside of the deep 
tropics. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that 
fresh trades prevail from 06N to 25N and W of 122W. NW-N swell is
producing 8-10 ft seas in the area described. This was confirmed
by an altimeter satellite pass a few hours ago depicting seas up
to 11 ft near 17N123W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 7-10
ft are found elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the main
surface feature of interest through the weekend, allowing for a 
large region of fresh trades W of 125W. Seas across the waters N
of 20N will diminish on Thu. However, a new surge of NW swell will
enter the area on Thu, with the leading edge of 8 ft reaching 
25N on Fri before diminishing on Sat.
  
$$
DELGADO