865 
AXPZ20 KNHC 291544
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1535 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Panama near 09N78W to
08N90W to 04N103W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N103W to 05N120W to
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is observed from the Equator to 08N and E of 107W to the coasts.
Similar convection is noted from 02N to 10N and between 110W and
130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A cold front extends from a low pressure system over Arizona,
across Sonora, northern Gulf of California, central Baja
California and into the Pacific Ocean. A few showers are noted on
satellite imagery affecting Baja California Sur and the adjacent
waters. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are present in the 
northern portion of the Gulf of California and similar W to NW 
winds in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Moderate 
to locally fresh NW to W winds are found in the remainder of the 
offshore waters of Baja California and the rest of the Gulf of 
California. Behind the cold front, a NW swell results in 8 to 14 
ft seas W of Baja California Norte and N of 24N. In the rest of 
the Baja California offshore waters, seas are 6 to 8 ft. In the 
northern part of the Gulf of California, seas are 4 to 7 ft, 
while 3 to 6 ft are found elsewhere in the basin. Moderate or 
weaker winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the rest of the 
Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SW to W winds in the 
northern portion of the Gulf of California are forecast to 
diminish this afternoon as the cold front continues moving SE 
across the basin. Large NW to N swell associated with the cold 
front will continue to spread SE across the offshore waters today
through late Wed and reaching the waters of Baja Sur Tue 
afternoon and evening, peaking at 8 to 11 ft. Seas will begin to 
subside Wed and fade to 7-8 ft on Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Persistent Caribbean trades continue to produce fresh to strong E
winds across the Papagayo region to 90W. Seas in the area are 5
to 7 ft. Fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama are prevalent 
with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere N of 02N, moderate or weaker 
winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. S of 02N, moderate S to SE
winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found.

For the forecast, winds across the Papagayo region are forecast 
to pulse to between fresh and locally strong at night through Wed
morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama 
will continue through tonight. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to 
be moderate or weaker the rest of this week. New SSW swell will 
move into the regional waters late Tue through Wed night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The aforementioned cold front stretches from central Baja
California to 22N120W, where it transitions into a dissipating
cold front to 19N135W. Only a few showers are noted near the
frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring N of 
29W and E of 124W in association with the expansive extratropical
cyclone over the SW United States. W to NW swell in the area 
described reach up to 16 ft. The remainder of the basin is 
dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system located near 32N141W.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to fresh trades
from 06N to 22N and W of 127W. Seas in this region are 8 to 13
ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft
prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure over the SW United States 
will continue to gradually weaken through late Tue. The 
associated cold front will reach from NW Mexico to across Baja 
California Sur and to near 20N130W by Tue afternoon. Large NW to 
N swell from this system will propagate southward across the 
area, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching 11N Tue 
afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are not expected to 
begin to diminish until Thu.
  
$$
DELGADO