000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290933 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 10N74W to 07.5N85W to 04N105W. The ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 05.5N128W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5S to 07N E of 82W to the coasts, and from 00N to 03.5N between 82W and 94W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 94W and 118W, and from 06N to 09.5N between 127W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A cold front extends from NW Mexico and enters the far northern Gulf of California along 114W, then crosses Baja Norte and exits into the Pacific waters just south of Punta San Carlos then continues SW across the offshore waters to beyond 24N120W. Scattered showers are seen up to 90 nm SE of the front to the west of 117W. Strong SW winds to around 30 kt are present across the northern Baja waters north of 30N. A 0230 UTC Jason-3 altimeter satellite pass measured seas to 8 ft across this area. Fresh W to NW winds prevail across the offshore waters W of Punta Eugenia and increase to strong westerly winds to the north of 28N. Seas across this area are 6 ft near Punta Eugenia and increase quickly farther offshore to the NW, to 15 ft in building NW swell across the outer waters near 30N. To the south of the front, a weak surface ridge extends ESE to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia becoming N to NE offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Wave heights are 4 to 5 ft in NW swell S of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate westerly gap winds have developed across the southern Gulf of California, with zones of strong gusty W winds. Further south across the Mexican waters, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail and extend across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and southward to the offshore waters of Oaxaca. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area. Fresh to strong SW to WSW winds across the far northern Gulf of California are presently peaking, and producing gale force wind gusts, and very rough seas. AS the cold front moves SE tonight through Tue morning, this area of strong WSW winds will shift gradually southward across the Gulf and slowly diminish. Large NW to N swell associated with this cold front will continue to spread SE across the regional waters tonight through late Wed and build seas to between 9 and 15 ft across all the waters of Baja Norte by early Tue, then reach the waters of Baja Sur Tue afternoon and evening, peaking at 8 to 11 ft. Seas will begin to subside Wed and fade to 7-8 ft on Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong easterly gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama prevail with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to between fresh and strong at night through Wed morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through tonight. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker the rest of this week. New SSW swell will move into the regional waters late Tue through Wed night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA This late-season cold front curves from from the offshore waters of Baja Norte to 24N120W then weakens across the open waters to 20N140W. Scattered showers are found near and up to 90 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds along with seas of 12 to 18 ft are found W of the northern Baja waters, N of 27N between 120W and 125W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail elsewhere W of the front to about 135W. Some of the largest seas of this winter season are moving through the waters W of 125W tonight, where seas north of the front are 8 to 18 ft in NW swell. A 1024 mb high pressure center has shifted SE into the region behind the front tonight, located near 32W141W. The pressure gradient S of the high and between lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds along and to the north of the front west of 130W, and south of the front to near 06N between 118W and 140W. Wave heights south of the front in this area are 6 to 7 ft, except 8 to 9 ft near the front, and 9 to 15 ft in building N swell to the north of the front. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 125W and the front, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. A 1007 mb low center located NW of the aforementioned cold front is gradually weakening while nearing the southern CA coast tonight, and will move ENE and inland and continue to weaken through late Tue. This low will drag the cold front SE across the Baja Norte offshore waters tonight, and reach from NW Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 20N130W by early Tue afternoon. Large NW to N swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching 15N by sunrise and 11N Tue afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu. $$ Stripling