000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Mar 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 09.5N74.5W to 07N80W to 03N103W. The ITCZ continues from 03N103W to 06.5N111W to 07.5N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5S to 09N E of 82W to the coasts, and from 00N to 07.5N between 82W and 104W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ W of 112W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A cold front extends across Baja Norte along 116W S-SW and exits the coast near Ejido Erendira, across the offshore waters of northern Baja well offshore to beyond 24N123W. Scattered showers are seen up to 90 nm E of the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are present across the northern Baja waters. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge extends nearly E to W along 21N to the south of the front and to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters S of Punta Eugenia becoming N to NE offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Wave heights are 3 to 5 ft in NW swell S of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail in the southern Punta Eugenia. However large and powerful NW swell generated behind the cold front has begun to enter the offshore waters of Baja Norte, where seas are 5 to 9 ft and quickly building. Inside the Gulf of California, S to SW winds have increased to strong across far north portions, where seas have built to 5-7 ft. Light to gentle southerly winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf were seas are generally low at 1 to 3 ft. Further south across the Mexican waters, gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail and extend across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and southward to the offshore waters of Oaxaca. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this area. Fresh to strong SW to WSW winds across the far northern Gulf of California will peak at strong to near-gale force later tonight ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Seas will build to 8 ft in the next few hours and continue through early Tue morning. Large NW to N swell related to this cold front will continue to spread SE across the regional waters tonight through late Wed and build seas to between 9 and 15 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte later tonight, and reach the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening, peaking at 8 to 11 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh easterly gap winds will continue across the Papagayo region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh east winds prevail further offshore to the outer boundary of the Nicaragua offshore waters, and are maintaining seas at 5 to 6 ft. Fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to between fresh and strong at night through Wed morning. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through tonight. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker the rest of this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA This late-season cold front curves from from the offshore waters of Baja Norte to across the offshore waters W of northern Baja and 24N123W to beyond 21N140W. Scattered showers are found near and up to 60 nm SE of the front. Fresh to strong W to NW winds along with seas at 167 to 21 ft are found W of the northern Baja waters, N of 27N between 120W and 131W. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and seas at 12 to 20 ft are evident near the front from 22N to 26N between 121W and 138W. A 1023 mb high pressure center has shifted SE into the region tonight, located near 32W142W. The pressure gradient S of the high and between lower pressure along the ITCZ is producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds along and to the north of the front west of 130W, and gentle to moderate trade winds from 06N to 17N between 110W and 140W. Wave heights south of the front in this area are 5 to 6 ft, and 8 to 15 ft in building N swell to the north of the front. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 130W and the front, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. A 1004 mb low center located W of the aforementioned cold front is gradually weakening while approaching the southern CA coast tonight, and will move ENE and inland and continue to weaken through late Tue. This low will drag the cold front SE across the Baja Norte offshore waters later tonight, and reach from NW Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 20N130W by early Tue afternoon. NW to N swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching 17N late tonight and 13N Tue afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu. $$ Stripling