000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281621 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia across 05N84W to 04N97W. An ITCZ continues from 04N97W across 06N120W to beyond 06N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from EQ to 07N between the Colombian coast and 112W, and also from 02N to 12N between 112W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A surface ridge extends from a 1015 mb high near 21N115W to near the Gulf of Techuantepec, Mexico. This feature is producing gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the waters offshore of Baja California, and light to gentle NW to N winds southward to 17N, including waters near Cabo Corrientes. Sea heights are 4 to 5 ft in NW swell except to 6 ft W of Baja Norte. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate to fresh across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in northern portions where seas are 3-5 ft. Fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and extend offshore to 14.5N, with peak seas of 6 ft. Moderat to fresh NE to E winds continue from there to the outer boundary of the offshore waters of Oaxaca, and are maintaining seas of 6-7 ft. The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued to slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to shift east-northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec should become light and variable later this afternoon. Fresh to strong SW winds across the far northern Gulf of California will increase further to near gale-force by this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will build to near 8 ft early Tue morning. A strong cold front associated with a large extratropical storm system just W of southern California will usher in large northwest swell across the waters W of Baja California beginning late this afternoon, building seas to 9-15 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte tonight, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh easterly gap winds to around 20 kt continue across the Papagayo region, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh east winds prevail further offshore to the outer boundary of the El Salvador offshore waters, and are maintaining seas there of 6-8 ft. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama are moderate to fresh with seas of 3-5 ft and increase to 6-7 ft to the S of 06N. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Wed morning. Fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Mon, then pulse back up to fresh speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 22N115W. The weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 15N between 100W and 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range. A strong late season cold front extends from near 30N123W to 23N133W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 90 nm east of the front north of 28N. Strong northwest to west winds are W of the front to the N of 28N. Recent satellite altimeter data measured wave heights to 24 ft along 30N immediately behind the front, which is several feet higher that global wave models have predicted. The leading edge of associated large N to NW swell is along and just ahead of the front to the E of 130W. High pressure NW of the front is producing an increased pressure gradient to the N of the ITCZ and west of 130W, where fresh trade winds are occurring. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 130W and the front, with seas of 5-6 ft. The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 996 mb north of the area near 35N129W producing strong gale force winds. The low is expected to gradually weaken as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern California Mon into Tue. This low will drag the cold front into the Baja Norte offshore waters Mon afternoon, and reach from northwestern Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 20N130W by early Tue afternoon. Northwest to north swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching 20N late Mon afternoon and to 11N by Tue afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu. $$ Chan