000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0810 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 09.5N75W to 06.5N81W to 07N85W to 04.5N97W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N97W to 08N132W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07.5N between 82W and 95W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 107W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Weak high pressure ridging anchored by a 1016 mb high center near 22N115W remains across the offshore waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light to gentle W to NW winds across the waters offshore of Baja California, and NW to N winds southward to 17N. Moderate northerly winds prevail along and near the coast of Cabo Corrientes, becoming light and variable further southeast to Salina Cruz. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest swell except to 6 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate to fresh across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in northern portions where seas are 3-4 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and extend offshore to 14.5N, with peak seas of 6 ft. Fresh NE to E winds continue from there to the outer boundary of the offshore waters of Oaxaca, and are maintaining seas of 6-7 ft. The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued to slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to shift east-northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec have pulsed briefly to strong tonight but will diminish by sunrise into early Mon, becoming light and variable on Mon afternoon. The wave heights downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to around 6 ft by morning. Freshening southerly winds across the far northern Gulf of California tonight will become fresh to strong from the southwest Mon morning and increase further to near gale-force Mon evening and night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will build to near 8 ft during this time. A strong cold front associated to a large extratropical storm system will move toward southern California on Mon and will usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning late Mon afternoon, building seas to 9-15 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh easterly gap winds to around 20 kt continue across the Papagayo region, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh east winds prevail further offshore to the outer boundary of the El Salvador offshore waters, and are maintaining seas there of 6-8 ft. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama are moderate to fresh with seas of 3-5 ft and increase to 6-7 ft to the S of 06N. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Wed morning. Fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Mon, then pulse back up to fresh speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 22N115W. The weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 15N between 100W and 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range. A strong late season cold front extends from near 30N123W to 23N133W to 22N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 90 nm east of the front north of 28N. Strong northwest to west winds are W of the front to the N of 28N. Recent satellite altimeter data measured wave heights to 24 ft along 30N immediately behind the front, which is several feet higher that global wave models have predicted. The leading edge of associated large N to NW swell is along and just ahead of the front to the E of 130W. High pressure NW of the front is producing an increased pressure gradient to the N of the ITCZ and west of 130W, where fresh trade winds are occurring. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 110W and 130W and the front, with seas of 5-6 ft. The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 996 mb north of the area near 35N129W producing strong gale force winds. The low is expected to gradually weaken as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern California Mon into Tue. This low will drag the cold front into the Baja Norte offshore waters Mon afternoon, and reach from northwestern Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 20N130W by early Tue afternoon. Northwest to north swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching 20N late Mon afternoon and to 11N by Tue afternoon. Seas across the waters N of 20N are not expected to begin to diminish until Thu. $$ Stripling