000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280325 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 11N74W to 06.5N80W to 06.5N85W to 03.5N100W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N100W to 06N133W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 0.5N to 08N between 84W and 97W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 0.5N to 08N between 111W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 131W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Weak high pressure ridging anchored by a 1015 mb high center near 25N117W remains over the offshore waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light to gentle winds across the waters offshore of Baja south and southeastward to Salina Cruz. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest swell except to 6 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate to fresh across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. Fresh N to NE winds continue across the Gulf of Tehunatepec and extend offshore to 15N, with seas of 5-6 ft. Fresh NE to E winds continue from there to the outer boundary of the offshore waters of Oaxaca, and are maintaining seas of 6-8 ft. The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued to slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to shift east- northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec will pulse briefly to strong during the next several hours and then diminish late tonight into early Mon, becoming light and variable on Mon afternoon. The wave heights downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight. Fresh southerly winds across the far northern Gulf of California early this evening will become fresh to strong from the southwest tonight through Mon and increase further to near gale- force Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas will build to near 8 ft during this time. A strong cold front associated to a large extratropical storm system that will move toward southern California on Mon will usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-15 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh easterly gap winds to near 20 kt continue across the Papagayo region, where seas are 5-6 ft. Fresh east winds prevail further offshore to the outer boundary of the El Salvador offshore waters, and are maintaining seas there of 6-8 ft. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama are moderate to fresh with seas of 3-5 ft and increase to 6-7 ft to the S of 06N. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Tue morning. Fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Mon, then pulse back up to fresh speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 25N117W. The weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 15N and west of about 115W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range, except 7 to 8 ft to W of 137W. A strong late season cold front extends from near 30N125W to 26N131W to 23N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 120 nm east of the front north of 27N. Strong northwest to west winds are W of the front, with wave heights of 8-17 ft in NW to N swell. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 120W and the front, with seas of 5-6 ft. The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 993 mb north of the area near 35N131W producing strong gale force winds. The low is expected to weaken as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern California Mon into Tue. This low will drag the cold front to a position from near 30N121W to 24N128W tonight, and to 22N140W by early Mon afternoon, and from northwestern Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 22N128W by early Tue afternoon. Northwest to north swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near 20N109W to 12N116W to 09N123W to 06N140W by early on Wed. Maximum wave heights at that time are expected to be about 10 ft. Wave heights north and northeast of a line from 30N122W to 24N136W to 30N138W are expected to subside less than 8 ft by early on Wed. $$ Stripling