000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280017 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0017 UTC Mon Mar 28 2022 Update Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N75W southwestward to 07N78W to 06N87W to 04N96W to 04N103W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that its transitions to the ITCZ to 04N114W to 05N126W to 06N131W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 86W-87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 86W-91W, also within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 123W-127W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W-123W and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 116W-121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The latest ASCAT pass over the Gulf of Tehunatepec shows north to northeast winds of 20-25 kt there. These winds reach southward to near 14N. The latest altimeter data pass over this same area shows that wave heights have subsided 5-7 ft in the Gulf, but higher wave heights of 8-10 ft were downwind of the Gulf from 13 to 14N between 95W-98W. Since the time the ASCAT was received, these wave heights have subsided slightly. The pressure gradient over southern Mexico has continued to slacken as higher pressure over the Gulf of Mexico continues to shift east-northeastward. Winds across Tehuantepec will diminish late tonight into early Mon, becoming light and variable on Mon afternoon. The wave heights downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to less than 8 ft late tonight. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by a 1015 mb high center west of the area near 24N120W remains over the offshore waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell mixing with small south swell. Fresh southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of California early this evening, then become fresh to strong from the southwest tonight through Mon and increase further to near gale-force Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. A strong cold front associated to a large extratropical storm system that will move toward southern California on Mon will usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-14 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The earlier fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds across the Papagayo region have diminished to fresh speeds, however, the latest ASCAT data passes show an area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds removed to the west of the Gulf of Papagayo from 09N to 11N between 91W-94W, with wave heights of 6-8 ft. Winds in the Gulf of Panama have diminished slightly to moderate speeds. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Tue morning. Fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly on Mon, then pulse back up to fresh speeds Mon night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Updated A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 24N120W. The weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 16N and west of about 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range. A cold front extends from near 30N128W to 27N134W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 120 nm east of the front north of 29N. Strong northwest to north winds are west of the front, with wave heights of 8-12 ft. Higher wave heights of 11-14 ft are north of 28N. A recent ship observation indicated southwest winds of 25 kt near 29N126W along with wave heights to 7 ft. Strong northwest to north winds are behind the front, with wave heights of 8-11 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 120W and the front, with seas of 5-6 ft. Weak high pressure over the area associated to the 1015 mb high center is maintaining weak trade winds, except for west of about 122W where fresh northeast trades are present. These winds will change little into Mon. The area of fresh trade winds begins to expand in coverage late Mon afternoon or evening and through Tue. Convection remains rather active along and near the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 118W-128W, and from 07N to 12N between 131W- 138W. The aforementioned cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 991 mb north of the area near 36N133W producing storm force winds. The low is expected to weaken as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern California Mon into Tue. This low will drag the cold front to a position from near 30N121W to 24N128W and dissipating to 22N140W by early Mon afternoon, and from northwestern Mexico to across Baja California Sur and to near 22N128W by early Tue afternoon. Northwest to north swell from this storm system will propagate southward across the area while losing energy, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near 20N109W to 12N116W to 09N123W to 06N140W by early on Wed. Maximum wave heights at that time are expected to be about 10 ft. Wave heights north and northeast of a line from 30N122W to 24N136W to 30N138W are expected to be less than 8 ft also by early on Wed. $$ Aguirre