064 AXPZ20 KNHC 271647 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N74W to 06N86W to 04N94W to 03N104W. The ITCZ continues from 03N104W to 05N117W to 05N126W to 06N131W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm north of the ITCZ between 118W-124W and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 121W-126W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 85W-90W and within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 117W-120W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 78W-80W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected North to northeast winds of 20-30 kt continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, with fresh to strong winds spreading further offshore to near 13N97W. Wave heights in this area are in the range of 8-10 ft. This ongoing strong gap wind event has generated a large area of 8 ft seas and greater that extends offshore to 09N between 95W-101W. High pressure centered across the Gulf of Mexico driving this gap wind event is shifting slowly northeastward away from Tehuantepec and southern Mexico. The high is forecast to shift east-northeastward and across Florida by Mon. It will gradually weaken the pressure gradient across southern Mexico and Tehuantepec. Winds across Tehuantepec will diminish further to fresh to strong speeds this afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong tonight across the waters north of 15N, before becoming light and variable by Mon afternoon. Wave heights of across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly subside will decay to 5-8 ft by early this evening, then to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1015 mb high center west of the area near 25N121W remains over the offshore waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell mixing with small south swell. Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun afternoon, as weak high pressure dominates the region. Fresh southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of California early this evening, then become fresh to strong from the southwest tonight through Mon and increase further to near gale-force Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. A vigorous deep-layered low pressure system well offshore of northern California along 136W will move into southern California late Mon, preceded by a cold front. The front will usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-13 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening. Conditions across Tehuantepec will improve through Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are across the Papagayo region tonight and extend northward to 11.5N. Wave heights with these winds are 4-7 ft but increase to 8 ft well downwind along 91W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 05N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated from the strong to recent gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-8 ft there. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Tue morning. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly. REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 26N123W. The weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 16N and west of about 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range. A cold front extends from near 30N132W to 28N135W to 26N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds are within 180 nm southeast of the front to the north of 28N. Wave heights there are reaching to 8 ft. Strong northwest to north winds are behind the front, with wave heights of 8-11 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 120W and the front, with wave heighs of 5-6 ft due to a northwest swell. The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken today as it shifts east-southeastward in response to the cold front. This trend will maintain weak trade winds through Mon, except moderate to fresh winds developing late Sun west of 130W. Strong and active convection is currently occurring along and near the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 118W-126W, and from 07N to 10N between 131W-137W. The cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 988 mb near 38N135W producing storm force winds. The low is expected to weaken as it tracks east-southeastward toward southern California tonight through Mon. This low will drag the cold front to a position from near 30N123W to 24N131W and dissipating to 22N140W by early Mon, and from northern Baja California to 24N120W and dissipating to 21N131W by early Tue. Northwest to north swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California Sur to 12N119W to 14N129W and to 07N140W by Tue night. $$ Aguirre