000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N74W to 05N82W to 06N87W to 03.5N103W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N103W to 04N125W. A second surface trough extends from 04.5N126W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N E OF 79W, and 01S to 07N between 85W and 109W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 08.5N between 118W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Strong northerly gap winds to around 30 kt continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, with fresh to strong winds spreading further offshore to near 13N97W. Peak seas across this area are to 11 ft. This ongoing strong gap wind event has generated a large area of 8 ft seas and greater that extends offshore to 09N between 95W and 101W. High pressure centered across the Gulf of Mexico driving this gap wind event is shifting slowly NE and away from Tehuantepec and southern Mexico. The high is forecast to shift ENE and across Florida by Monday, and will gradually weaken the pressure gradient across southern Mexico and Tehuantepec. Winds across Tehuantepec will diminish further to fresh to strong speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong Sun night across the waters N of 15n, before becoming light and variable by Mon afternoon. Wave heights of across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly subside will decay to 5-8 ft by early Sun evening, then to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1016 mb high center west of the area near 26N123W remains over the offshore waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell mixing with small south swell. Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun afternoon, as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun evening, fresh southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A vigorous deep-layered low pressure system well offshore of northern California along 136W will move into southern California late Mon, preceded by a cold front. The front will usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-14 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening. Conditions across Tehuantepec will improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through mid- week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are across the Papagayo region tonight and extend northward to 11.5N. Wave heights with these winds are 4-7 ft but increase to 8 ft well downwind along 91W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 05N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated from the strong to recent gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-8 ft there. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Tue morning. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 26N123W. The weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 16N and west of about 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range. A cold front has entered the northwest portion of the discussion area tonight, and extends from 30N135W to beyond 27N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds prevail within 150 nm SE of the front to the N of 28N. Seas there are to 8 ft in new NW swell. Behind the front strong NW to N winds are building in, with wave heights of 8-10 ft in NW swell. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere between 120W and the front, with seas of 5-6 ft. The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken through Sun as it shifts east-southeastward in response to the cold front. This trend will maintain weak trade winds through Mon, except moderate to fresh winds developing late Sun west of 130W. Strong and active convection is currently occurring along and near the ITCZ from 02N TO 08.5N between 118W AND 135W, and expected to continue west of about 128W through at least Sun night. The cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 988 mb near 39N136W producing storm force winds. The low is expected to move eastward and weaken, passing well to the north of 30N this weekend and drag the cold front across the northwest waters tonight, then to a position near 30N128W to 27N133W to 24N140W by early Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights 8-9 ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front along with wave heights of 8-11 ft late tonight, building to 10-20 ft on Sun night. Northwest to north swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California Sur to 12N119W and to near 07N140W by Tue night. $$ Stripling