770 AXPZ20 KNHC 270320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N74W to 04.5N81W to 05.5N87W to 03N97W and to 05N107W. The ITCZ continues from 05N107W to 07.5N135W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 00N to 08N between 83W and 108W, and from 02.5N to 08N between 116W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico has shifted sufficiently to the east-northeast to cause the pressure gradient over southern Mexico to slacken a little. This has allowed for the earlier Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force winds to weaken to below gale-force early tonight. As the high pressure continues to shift east-northeastward through Sun, these winds will diminish further to fresh to strong speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong speeds Sun night and become light and variable Mon afternoon. Wave heights of 8-10 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Wave heights of 8-10 ft due to north to northeast swell extend downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 09N to 13N and between 94W and 100W will decay to 5-8 ft by early Sun evening. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1017 mb high center west of the area near 27N124W remains over the offshore waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, and increase to moderate across far north portions. Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-2 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 2-3 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell mixing with small south swell. Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun, as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A deep-layered low pressure system will move into southern California late Mon, preceded by the cold front. The front will usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-13 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon evening. Conditions across Tehuantepec will improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through mid- week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region tonight and extend northward to the central offshore waters of Nicaragua. Wave heights with these winds are 4-7 ft but increase to 8 ft well downwind along 90W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 06.5N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated from the strong to gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-9 ft there. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1017 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 27N124W. The weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 06N to 14N and west of about 112W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 6-7 ft range. A cold front has just entered the northwest portion of the discussion area, crossing 30N140W. A surface trough precedes the front and extends from 30N136W to beyond 27N140W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail between the trough and the front, with seas to 8 ft in new NW swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present W of 120W, with wave heights of 5-6 ft. The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken through tonight as it shifts east-southeastward in response to the cold front. This trend will allow for the trade winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. Very active convection will continue south of about 19N and west of about 128W through at least Sun. Convection is strong active along and near the ITCZ from 04N to 07N and between 124W and 133W. The cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 986 mb near 41N137W. The low is expected to move eastward well to the north of 30N this weekend and drag the cold front across the extreme northwest waters this evening, then to a position from near 30N134W to 27N140W late tonight, and from near 30N128W to 27N133W to 25N140W by early Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights 8-9 ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front along with wave heights of 8-10 ft late tonight, building to 8-16 ft on Sun night. Northwest to north swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California Sur to 15N124W and to near 08N140W by Tue night. $$ Stripling