000 AXPZ20 KNHC 270011 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near 10N75W, southwestward to 07N78W to 05N87W to 03N95W and to 04N105W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N116W to 05N123W to 05N133W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 127W-134W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W- 127W, within 120 south of the trough between 84W-88W and within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 123W-128W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 102W- 105W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 105W-107W, within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 110W- 113W and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 114W-116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico has shifted slightly enough to east-northeast causing the gradient over southern Mexico to slacken a little. This has allowed for the earlier Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force winds to weaken to near gale- force. As the high pressure continues to shift east- northeastward through Sun, these winds diminish further to mainly fresh speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong speeds Sun night and become light and variable Mon afternoon. Wave heights of 8-11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Wave heights of 8-10 ft due to north to northeast swell downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 09N to 13N and between 95W and 100W will decay by early Sun evening. Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1019 mb high center north of the area near 33N125W remains over the offshore waters. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 3-5 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Wave height are generally fair in the Gulf at 1-2 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 2-3 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in NW swell mixed with S swell. Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun, as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A deep-layered low pressure system will move into southern California late Mon, preceded by the cold front. The front will usher in a set of large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-34 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon night. Conditions across Tehuantepec will improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region tonight and extend northward to the southern offshore of Nicaragua. Wave heights with these winds are 8 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 06N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated from the strong to gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-10 ft there. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area near 33N125W. The pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 07N to 14N and west of about 119W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft. The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken through tonight as it shifts east-southeastward in response to an approaching cold front. This trend will allow for the trade winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. Very active convection will continue south of about 19N and west of about 128W through at least Sun. Convection is also very active along and near the ITCZ from 03N to 09N and between 124W and 128W. The approaching cold front will precede a rather robust extratropical low that is expected to move eastward well to the north of 30N this weekend. The low will drag the cold front across the extreme northwest waters this evening, then to a position from near 30N134W to 27N140W late tonight, and from near 30N128W to 27N133W to 25N140W by early Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front along with wave heights of 8-10 ft late tonight, building to 8-16 ft on Sun night. Northwesterly swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California to 15N124W and to near 08N140W by Tue night. $$ Aguirre