000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262158 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022 Corrected Offshore Waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: An overnight ASCAT pass revealed north to northeast gale-force winds of 30-35 kt across and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 15N. Wave heights there are in the range of 9-12 ft. High pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico will begin to shift northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico today leading to a gradual decrease in winds across Tehuantepec through this evening. Winds are expected to diminish to near gale-force by early on Sun, to mainly fresh speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong speeds Sun night and become gentle northerly winds on Mon. Wave heights in the Gulf will slowly subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near 10N75W, southward to 07N78W to 04N90W to 03N98W and to 04N105W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N118W to 05N130W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 05N between 83W-87W, within 120 north of the trough between 84W-88W, within 120 north of the ITCZ between 127W-130W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 127W-130W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W-126W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 102W-104W, and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 115W-120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak high pressure ridge is over the offshore waters. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-6 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Wave height are generally fair in the Gulf at 1-2 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 2-3 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in NW swell mixed with S swell. An overnight ASCAT pass shows a swath of strong north to northeast winds, about 120 nm in width, present downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force winds to near 12N. Wave heights with these winds are in the range of 8-12 ft. Wave heights of 8 ft and greater cover an even larger area and extend offshore to near 09N and between 95W and 100W. Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun, as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A deep layered low pressure system will move into southern California late Mon, preceded by the cold front. The front will usher in a set of large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 10-14 ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft by Mon night. Conditions across Tehuantepec will improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through mid-week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo extend northward to offshore of Nicaragua. Wave heights with these winds are of 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 06N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated from the strong to gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-10 ft there. Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong at night through Sun. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area near 32N128W. The pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 06N to 19N and west of 118W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft. The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken through tonight as it shifts east-southeastward in response to an approaching cold front. This trend will allow for the trade winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. A strong upper level trough will move across the waters W of 130W and S of 20N Sat and Sun and induce very active convection along and N of the ITCZ to the W of 130W. The approaching cold front will precede a rather robust extratropical low that is expected to move eastward well to the north of 30N this weekend. The low will drag the cold front across the extreme northwest waters Sat afternoon, then to a position from near 30N134W to 27N140W late tonight, and from near 30N128W to 27N133W to 25N140W by early Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front along with wave heights of 8-10 ft late tonight, building to 8-16 ft on Sun night. Northwesterly swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, reaching to near 08N by Tue night. $$ Aguirre