000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale-force winds of 30-40 kt are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These conditions are forecast to diminish to near gale force early on Sun and to fresh to strong Sun afternoon. Wave heights currently in the range of 9-13 ft will diminish slightly Sat and further on Sun. wave heights will continue to subside going into the beginning of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from the Panama/Colombia border near 07N78W to 09N88W to 06N94W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 03N98W and to 03N101W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N116W to 07N129W to 07N135W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 84W-92W within 180 nm south of trough between 87W- 90W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 104W-108W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are light and variable in the Gulf of California, except for the central section where winds are gentle from the northwest. Wave heights in the Gulf are pretty low of 1-2 ft, except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 2-3 ft. Latest ASCAT data shows gentle northwest to north winds offshore Baja California, where wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range due to a northwest swell. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft due to northwest swell mixed with south swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon night ahead of a cold front associated to low pressure system that will be impacting southern California. The front will usher in a large set of northwest swell to the waters west of Baja California early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Afternoon ASCAT data passes depict an area of moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to the wests of the Gulf of Papagayo region from 08N to 11N between 88W-93W. The ASCAT data also has gentle to moderate north winds in the Gulf of Panama, and an area of moderate to fresh north to northeast winds downstream of the Gulf from 03N to 06N between 79W-81W. Generally, gentle winds remain elsewhere. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range due a south swell, except mixed with northwest to north swell generated by Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event north of about 07N. Higher wave heights of 6-9 ft due to a northwest swell that also originates from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are offshore Guatemala. For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh to strong through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore zone through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area near 34N128W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in moderate to locally fresh trade winds, primarily from 08N to 16N and west of about 128W and from 07N to 15N between 117W-128W. Wave heights with these winds are in the 6-8 ft range, with the highest wave west of 137W. The 8 ft wave heights are forecast to subside to just below 8 ft late tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken through Sat night as it shifts east-southeastward in response to an approaching cold front. This trend will allow for the trade winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. The cold front will be tied to a rather robust extratropical low that is expected to move eastward well to the north of our 30N this weekend. The low will drag the cold front across the extreme northwest waters Sat night, then to a position from near 30N135W TO 28N140W late Sat night and from near 30N129W to 28N133W to 25N140W by early Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front along with wave heights of 8 to 10 ft late Sat night, building to 8 to 12 ft on Sun afternoon. Higher wave heights of 11-15 ft are expected north of 29N on Sun afternoon. Northerly swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, possibly reaching to near 08N by Tue night. $$ Aguirre