121 
AXPZ20 KNHC 241943
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force gap winds, N at 25
to 35 kt, are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gales will 
prevail into Sat night, peaking around 40 kt tonight through Fri.
The gap winds are being caused by high pressure building south 
through the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas currently up to 10 ft 
will increase to 12 to 14 ft tonight through Fri night. As high 
pressure weakens and moves east, winds and seas will decrease for
the start of next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends Panama near 07N79W to 05N94W to 
04N109W. The ITCZ then stretches from 04N109W to 06N125W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is present from 02S to 08N and between 81W and 110W. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 02N to 09N and between 110W and
130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Fresh NW winds are ongoing in the central and southern Gulf of 
California as high pressure builds south. Across the northern 
Gulf, mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas in the area of fresh winds
average 4 to 6 ft, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere in the Gulf. To
the west of Baja California, mainly gentle N winds prevail with 
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly gentle to 
moderate winds prevail, with locally fresh N winds occurring 
offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas average 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds in the Gulf of 
California will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong southerly 
winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sun night 
through Mon night ahead of a cold front. A large set of NW swell 
is likely to impact the waters offshore of Baja California early
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Mainly fresh E winds continue to affect the Papagayo region to 
88W, with mainly moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the equator, while 
gentle to moderate S to SE winds are found south of the equator.
Seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent, except 4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador 
in long period S-SW swell.

For the forecast, Caribbean trades will continue to cause winds
in the Papagayo region to increase to fresh to strong starting 
tonight and continuing through early next week. Winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat through
Sat night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or 
weaker into early next week. W to NW swell from Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap winds will begin impacting the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore zones tonight, then continue into Sunday 
morning. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The high pressure system of 1026 mb remains positioned near 
33N132W, just north of our forecast area, and continues to 
dominate the region. The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is 
causing moderate to fresh trades, primarily N of 10N and W of 
125W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker anticyclonic winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to continue to weaken, allowing the trades to diminish. Moderate
to gentle winds will prevail over most of the High Seas late 
this week through the weekend. Seas will also decrease somewhat 
as result of the diminishing winds. Later, a robust extratropical
low is expected to move eastward while centered just north of 
our 30N border this weekend, dragging an attendant cold front 
across the northern waters. This system is forecast to bring 
increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 120W 
through the weekend, spreading east through early next week.

$$
KONARIK