000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force gap winds, N at 25
to 35 kt, are beginning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning.
Gales will prevail through Sat night, peaking around 40 kt Fri
and Fri night. The gap winds are being caused by high pressure
building south through the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas 
currently up to 8 ft will increase to 12 to 14 ft tonight into 
Fri night. As high pressure weakens and moves east, winds and 
seas will decrease for the start of next week. Please read the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends Panama near 07N80W to 05N94W to 
04N112W. The ITCZ then stretches from 04N112W to 06N125W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is present from 02S to 09N and between 80W and 112W. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 03N to 09N and between 113W and 
121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong NW winds are ongoing in the central and southern
Gulf of California as high pressure surges south. Across the
northern Gulf, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas in the area
of fresh to strong winds average 5 to 7 ft, with 2 to 4 ft seas
elsewhere in the Gulf. To the west of Baja California, gentle to
moderate N winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere
offshore Mexico, mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail, with
locally fresh N winds occurring offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas
average 4 to 6 ft. 


For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of 
California will diminish this afternoon to primarily moderate. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf
of California Sun night through Mon night. Moderate NW swell 
west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually subside over
the next couple of days. A larger set of NW swell may impact the
waters offshore of Baja California early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh E winds continue to affect the Papagayo region
to 88W, with moderate to locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of
Panama. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the
equator, while mainly moderate S to SE winds are found south of 
the equator. Seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent, except 4-6 ft offshore
of Ecuador in long period S-SW swell.

For the forecast, Caribbean trades will continue to cause moderate
to fresh winds in the Papagayo region, increasing to fresh to 
strong starting early Fri through early next week. Winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong starting Fri
night through early Sun. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be 
moderate or weaker through the upcoming weekend. W to NW swell 
from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin impacting 
the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore zones Thu night, 
continuing through Sunday morning. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The high pressure system of 1026 mb remains positioned near 
33N132W, just north of our forecast area, and continues to 
dominate the region. The pressure gradient between the 
subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is 
causing moderate to fresh trades, primarily N of 10N and W of 
125W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker anticyclonic winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to continue to weaken, allowing the trades to diminish. Moderate
to gentle winds will prevail over most of the High Seas late 
this week through the weekend. Seas will also decrease somewhat 
as result of the diminishing winds. Later, a robust extratropical
low is expected to move eastward while centered just north of 
our 30N border this weekend, dragging an attendant cold front 
across the northern waters. This system is forecast to bring 
increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 120W 
through the weekend, spreading east through early next week.

$$
KONARIK