000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240819
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A recent scatterometer
satellite pass captured N 25 to 30 kt winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, indicating that the expected gap wind event has
begun. Winds will increase to gale-force by Thu afternoon and 
continue through early Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
thereafter through early Monday. Seas are up to 8 ft, and 
forecast to peak around 14 ft Thu night through Fri. Seas are 
then expected to subside to less than 8 ft by Sun afternoon. 
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia 
near 07N78W to 06N92W to 04N113W. The ITCZ then stretches from 
04N113W to 06N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is present from 02S to 09N and 
between 84W and 108W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 
03N to 09N and between 113W and 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong NW winds 
across the central Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate 
winds prevail in the rest of the gulf. Seas in the central and 
southern portion of the gulf are 4-6 ft, while 2-4 ft are 
prevalent elsewhere. In the offshore waters west of Baja 
California, gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
are found. Moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds and seas of 
4-6 ft are occurring off SW Mexico. Elsewhere, excluding the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly gap winds over the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec are expected to begin Thu afternoon. These winds 
are forecast to continue at gale-force through Sun morning, then
weaken but remain at fresh to strong through early Mon. The 
fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of California will diminish 
Thu afternoon to primarily moderate. Fresh to strong southerly 
winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sun night 
through Mon night. Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California 
peninsula will gradually subside over the next couple of days. A 
larger set of NW swell may impact the waters offshore of Baja 
California early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to locally fresh E winds continue to affect the 
Papagayo region to 88W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
show moderate to locally N to NW winds in the Gulf of Panama. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail north of the equator, while
moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds are found south of the
equator. Seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent, except 4-6 ft offshore of
Ecuador in long period S-SW swell.

For the forecast, the Caribbean trades will continue to cause moderate
to fresh winds in the Papagayo region, increasing to fresh to 
strong starting early Fri through early next week. Winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong starting 
Fri night through early Sun. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be
moderate or weaker through the upcoming weekend. W to NW swell 
from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin impacting 
the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore zones Thu night, 
continuing through Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The high pressure system of 1027 mb remains positioned near
33N133W, just north of our forecast area, and continues to
dominate the region. The pressure gradient between the
subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is
causing moderate to fresh trades, primarily N of 10N and W of
125W. This was recently confirmed by a scatterometer satellite 
pass. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker anticyclonic winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to continue to weaken, allowing the trades to diminish. Moderate
to gentle winds will prevail over most of the High Seas starting
late this week through the weekend. Seas will also decrease
somewhat as result of the diminishing winds. Later, a robust 
extratropical low is expected to move eastward while centered 
just north of our 30N border this weekend, dragging an attendant 
cold front across the northern waters. This system is forecast to
bring increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 
120W through the weekend, spreading east through early next week.

$$
DELGADO