000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240310
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches
from the Florida panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche in the
Gulf of Mexico. A northerly gap wind event has begun in Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with winds increasing to a strong breeze. Winds will
increase to gale-force by Thu afternoon and continue through Sat
morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast thereafter through 
the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Seas of at least 8 ft are 
forecast to develop by late Thu morning, peaking around 14 ft 
Thu night through Fri. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 
8 ft Sun afternoon and night. Please read the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W 
to 05N85W to 06N94W to 04N107W to 05N119W. The ITCZ then
stretches from 05N119W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 
08N and between 83W and 103W. Isolated moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N and between 103W and 120W, and from 06N to
10N and between 125W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A 1027 mb high pressure system continues positioned north of the
tropical Pacific, near 34N132W, dominating the weather conditions
across most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are
present across the offshore waters of the Baja California
peninsula and seas in the region are 4-6 ft. Fresh to locally
strong NW winds are occurring in the Gulf of California, with the
strongest winds affecting the central portion of the basin. Seas
are 3-5 ft in the gulf. The rest of the offshore waters of
Mexico, excluding the Gulf of Tehuantepec, experiences moderate
to locally fresh NW-W winds and seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, the strong cold front moving across the Gulf 
of Mexico will cause gale-force northerly gap winds over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec beginning Thu afternoon. These winds are forecast
to continue at gale-force through Sat morning, then fresh to 
strong through the remainder of the weekend. A deepening area of 
low pressure over the Great Basin is forcing fresh to strong NW 
winds over the Gulf of California and this will continue through 
early Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the 
northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon night. Moderate
NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually 
subside over the next couple of days. A larger set of NW swell 
may impact the waters offshore of Baja California early next 
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to locally fresh offshore winds are across the Papagayo
region to 87W. Moderate to locally N winds are also occurring in
the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. 
Seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent, except 4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador 
in long period S-SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region
will pulse to fresh to strong starting early Fri through early 
next week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to moderate to 
fresh beginning Thu night through early Sun. Elsewhere, winds are
forecast to be moderate or weaker through the upcoming weekend. 
W to NW swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will 
begin impacting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore zones Thu 
night, continuing through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The moderate pressure gradient as the result of the subtropical 
ridge north of our area and lower pressures in the deep tropics 
produces a large region of fresh trades, especially N of 10N and
W of 122W. Seas in the area described are up to 9 ft in mixed NE
and NW swell, as captured by an altimeter pass a few hours ago.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and 5-7 ft seas
prevail.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of our area is 
expected to weaken, allowing the trades to diminish, becoming 
moderate or gentle over most of the High Seas by late this week 
and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will subside somewhat as a 
result of the diminishing winds. Later, a robust extratropical 
low is expected to move eastward while centered just north of our
30N border this weekend, dragging an attendant cold front across
the northern waters. This system is forecast to bring increasing
winds and building seas north of 25N west of 120W through the 
weekend, spreading east through early next week.

$$
DELGADO