000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231512
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front from the
north central to the southwest Gulf of Mexico will induce a
northerly gap wind event of the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this
evening. Winds will increase to gale-force by Thu afternoon and
continue through Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
thereafter through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Seas 
of at least 8 ft are forecast to develop by late Thu morning, 
peaking around 13 ft Thu night through Fri. Seas are forecast to
subside to less than 8 ft Sun afternoon and night.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia 
near 07N78W to 05N90W to 05N110W. The ITCZ extends from 05N110W 
to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 02S to 03N between 83W and 88W,
from 06N to 09N between 114W and 120W, from 05N to 08N between
123W and 128W, and from 04N to 07N between 134W and 140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between
86W and 90W, and from 03N to 05N between 100W and 109W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A 1027 mb high pressure system located north of the area near 
33.5N134W continues to dominate the weather conditions across 
most of the tropical Pacific, including the offshore waters of 
Mexico. Moderate NW-N winds dominate the waters from offshore of
Jalisco northward to offshore of the Baja California Peninsula,
with mainly 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate NW swell. Similar winds 
are blowing across the Gulf of California, locally fresh in the 
northern Gulf, along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle 
winds are offshore of the waters south of Jalisco, along with
seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the strong cold front traversing the Gulf of 
Mexico will cause gale-force northerly gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec beginning Thu afternoon. These winds are forecast to
continue at gale-force through Sat morning, then fresh to strong
through the remainder of the weekend. A deepening area of low 
pressure over the Great Basin will force fresh to strong NW winds
over the Gulf of California later today through early Thu. 
Moderate NW swell west of the Baja California peninsula will 
gradually subside over the next couple of days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh offshore winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are across
the Papagayo region. Moderate N-NE winds are in the Gulf of
Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate SE-S winds are
offshore of Ecuador south of the equator and within 500 nm of
shore. Light to gentle and variable winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
of 2 to 4 ft prevail outside of the Papagayo region, except 4 to
6 ft offshore of Ecuador in long period S-SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region
will pulse to fresh to strong starting early Fri through the 
upcoming weekend. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to 
moderate to fresh beginning Thu night through early Sun. 
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker through 
the upcoming weekend. Large W to NW swell from a Tehuantepecer 
gap wind event should begin impacting the Guatemala and El 
Salvador offshore zones Thu night, continuing through Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

As mentioned above, a 1027 mb high pressure system located north
of the area near 33.5N134W continues to dominate the weather 
conditions across most of the tropical Pacific. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted north of the ITCZ west of 125W, except in the
far northwest corner of the area closer to the high. Seas across
this region are mainly 6 to 9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW
swell, locally to 10 ft near 13N138W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft
elsewhere, in a mix of long period SW and NW swell. Gentle to 
moderate trades prevail elsewhere north of the ITCZ, with light 
to gentle winds south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is 
expected to weaken, allowing the trades to diminish, becoming 
moderate or gentle over most of the High Seas by late this week 
and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will subside somewhat as a
result of the diminishing winds. Later, a large extratropical 
low is expected to move eastward while centered just north of 
our 30N border this weekend, dragging an attendant cold front
across the northern waters. This system is forecast to bring 
increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 120W. 

$$
Lewitsky