000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230942
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches across the central
Gulf of Mexico as it moves eastward. It will cause a N gap wind 
event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Thu afternoon through
Sat. Winds will diminish down to a strong breeze by Sun. Seas of
at least 8 ft should begin Thu, peaking around 13 ft Thu night 
through Fri, and likely subside below 8 ft by Sun.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 06N77W 
to 02N95W to 04N108W. The ITCZ then continues from 04N108W to 
06N125W to beyond 05N140W. Isolated moderate convection is 
present from 02S to 06N and E of 109W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N and W of 
110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A 1029 mb high pressure system located near 34N133W continues to
dominate the weather conditions across most of the tropical
Pacific, including the offshore waters of Mexico. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depict mainly gentle to moderate NW
winds across the waters off Baja California. Seas in the area
described are in the 5 to 7 ft range, as confirmed by an
altimeter satellite pass that occurred recently. The satellite-
derived winds also captured the northern and central portions of
the Gulf of California, indicating moderate to locally fresh NW
winds. Seas in this region are 1-3 ft, except for 3-5 ft at the
entrance of the gulf.

Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds are present in
the offshore waters of SW Mexico with wave heights in the 4-6 ft
range. In the rest of the offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate onshore winds are prevalent with
seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, the strong cold front traversing the Gulf of 
Mexico will cause gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec beginning Thu afternoon. These N winds are forecast
to continue at gale-force through Sat, before diminishing by 
Sun. A deepening low pressure over the Great Basin will force 
fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of California from Wed 
night through Thu morning. Large NW swell west of the Baja 
California peninsula will gradually diminish over the next day or
two.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh E winds 
in the Papagayo region to 88W. The moderate trade winds are also
causing moderate to locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama,
but these winds will diminish in the late morning hours and 
pulse again tonight. Elsewhere, gentle southerly winds prevail 
south of the surface trough along 05N with gentle to moderate E 
winds north of the trough. Seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds in the 
Papagayo region are expected to continue through at least Monday.
Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker over the 
Central American and equatorial offshore zones for the next 
several days. Large W to NW swell from a Tehuantepecer gap wind 
event should begin impacting the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore zones beginning Thu night and continue through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Latest satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to locally strong
trades from 06N to 24W and W of 127W, with the strongest winds
occurring from S of 17N. The result is a diminishing swell region
in the area described with wave heights in the 8 to 10 ft range.
The scatterometer also captured fresh N-NE winds north of 22N 
between 122W-130W. Seas in this region are near 8 ft. A
stationary front is near the northwest corner of our forecast
area, but it is already in the process of dissipating. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure north of our area is expected to
weaken, allowing the trades to diminish, becoming moderate or 
gentle over most of the High Seas by late this week and into the 
weekend. Later, a large extratropical low is expected to move 
eastward while centered just north of our 30N border this weekend 
with increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 
120W. 

$$
DELGADO