000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220846
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0855 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 08N90W to 04N105W. The 
ITCZ continues from 04N105W to 06N120W to 06N130W to beyond 
07N140W. Satellite imagery depict scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection from 01S to 07N and between the coast of
Colombia and 101W. Isolated moderate convection is present from
05N to 08N and between 113W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate that the N to NW winds
offshore Baja California have decreased to the moderate to 
locally fresh range. Seas remain 8-10 ft in NW swell in the
waters north of Punta Eugenia and 8-9 ft southward to the Los
Cabos area. An altimeter satellite pass from a couple of hours
ago captured seas up to 9 ft west of Cabo San Lazaro. 

Moderate to locally fresh NW to W winds persist over most of the
Gulf of California, except for fresh northerly winds near the 
gulf entrance. Seas in the gulf are 3-4 ft, except for 5-6 ft at
the entrance. Satellite-derived wind data show moderate to
locally fresh NW winds along the SW Mexican offshore waters. 
Wave heights in the region are 4-6 ft. Meanwhile, gentle to 
moderate onshore winds continue off the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
where seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds in the Gulf of 
California will prevail through Wed and increase to fresh to 
strong Wed night through Thu. Gale-force winds are forecast to 
develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Thu and continue at or 
near gale force through late Sat. Seas are expected to build to
12 ft by Thu night and remain in the 8 to 11 ft range through
late Sunday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong easterly winds are ongoing across the Papagayo 
region with wave heights up to 8 ft. These winds cover most of 
the Nicaragua offshore waters east of 90W. Recent scatterometer
wind data depict moderate to locally fresh N winds in the Gulf 
of Panama. Seas in the gulf are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft due to SW swell prevail.

For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in 
the Papagayo region are forecast to decrease later today. 
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will then continue across the 
Nicaragua offshore waters through Sat. The winds in the Gulf of 
Panama are expected to diminish to gentle to moderate later 
today. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to affect the 
offshore forecast waters through Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The subtropical ridge remains anchored near 36N131W and dominates
the remainder of the tropical Pacific north of the ITCZ and west
of 115W. A moderate pressure gradient exists between the
mentioned 1031 mb high pressure system and the lower pressures in
the ITCZ. The latest scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to
locally strong E to NE winds south of 24N and west of 115W. Seas
of 7-10 ft are occurring in the region described. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will remain the dominant
feature in the forecast waters W of 110W and continue to support
fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and high seas in 
mixed swell through late Wed. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected in
this region through Wed before subsiding to between 6 and 9 ft 
on Thu. A large low pressure system and associated cold front 
will enter the NW corner of the tropical Pacific during the 
upcoming the weekend.

$$
DELGADO