000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192115 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Currently, fresh to strong northerly winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region with seas of 5-8 t ft. By tonight, winds are forecast to briefly reach minimal gale force with seas building up to 10 or 11 ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, will persist downwind of the Gulf to about 11N97W on Sun. This gap wind event is forecast to end early on Monday morning. Of note, climatological records indicate that the final gale-force event in the Tehuantepec region occurs in late March or early April. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb high pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from 06N91W to 04N105W to 02N115W to 04N125W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 78W and 82W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Please, see the Special Features section for details. A 1030 mb high pressure system positioned near 34N141W extends a ridge across the north waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds along the Baja California offshore waters, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle NW winds are present in the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California, while light southerly winds are noted in the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 1-2 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle NW winds are elsewhere along the Mexican offshore waters where wave heights of 4-6 ft continue primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, a weakening cold front will approach the offshore waters of northern Baja California tonight into Sun morning, bringing an increase in winds and seas. Winds of 20-25 kt are expected N of Punta Eugenia on Sun morning, with seas building to 8-12 ft in NW swell. These fresh to strong winds will spread southward reaching the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun evening. At the same time, fresh to strong W to NW winds are expected across the central Gulf of California. By Sun night, fresh to locally strong NW winds will dominate the entire Baja California offshore waters, including Los Cabos area with seas in the 8-12 ft range propagating across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. The highest seas are expected near 30N119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are blowing across the Papagayo region with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama where seas are 3-5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Papagayo region through early Tue, with seas building to 8 ft Sun night through Mon night. Moderate to fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night through Sun night. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to affect the offshore forecast waters with seas of 3-5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 34N141W dominates the waters N of the ITCZ and W of about 110W. This high pressure center follows a cold front that is currently clipping the northern forecast waters W of 130W. The front will continue to move SE reaching the offshore waters of northern Baja California by tonight while weakening. This weather pattern will bring increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast waters W of 110W. The high pressure will shift E tonight, and will remain nearly stationary on Sun. This combined with lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ will result in a large area of fresh to strong trade winds across the west-central waters beginning tonight. Seas of 8-10 ft are expected within the area of trade winds. $$ GR