000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190956
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N90W to 03N101W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N101W to 07N123W to 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 84W and 90W, and
from 05N to 10N W of 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1028 mb high pressure system positioned near 35N147W extends 
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing 
mainly light to gentle NW to N winds along the Baja California 
offshore waters, with wave heights of 5-7 ft in NW swell. Gentle 
to moderate NW winds are along the offshore waters of Jalisco to 
Michoacan with seas to 5 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle variable
winds are elsewhere along the Gulf of California, S and SW 
Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front is forecast to approach
the offshore waters of northern Baja California tonight into 
Sun, bringing an increase in winds and seas. Fresh to strong 
winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia on Sun, with building seas 
in NW swell. These winds will spread southward reaching the 
waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun evening. At the same time, 
fresh to strong W to NW winds are expected across parts of the 
Gulf of California. By Sun night, fresh to locally strong NW 
winds will dominate the entire Baja California offshore waters, 
including Los Cabos area. The next gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region is expected to begin this morning through 
early on Mon. Winds could briefly reach minimal gale force  
tonight. Seas are expected to build up to 9 or 10 ft with this 
event. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region with
seas to 5-6 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the 
Gulf of Panama with 3-4 ft seas in SW swell. Light to gentle 
winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft in decaying 
SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across
the Papagayo region through Tue morning. Then moderate to fresh
winds will pulse through the middle of the week. Seas in Papagayo
are expected to build to 8 ft Sun night. Moderate N winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama at night through Sun night. Light
to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere through the 
forecast period. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 35N147W dominates 
the waters N of the ITCZ and W of about 115W. The pressure 
gradient between this system and lower pressures near the ITCZ 
supports fresh trade winds from 06N to 21N W of 134W. Recent
altimeter data show, wave heights in the 8-10 ft range across 
this area in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. Gentle to moderate
NE to E winds are elsewhere W of 110W. 

For the forecast, high pressure situated just N of the area will
continue to dominate most of the forecast waters N of the ITCZ 
and W of 110W through today. A weakening cold front will clip 
the northern forecast region late today. This will bring 
increasing NW to N winds of 20-25 kt and building seas of 8-12 
ft, mainly across the NE waters, including the offshore waters of
Baja California Norte tonight into Sun. 

$$
Ramos