000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Mar 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 02N106W. The ITCZ continues from 02N106W to 06N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 08N between 82W and 88W. Farther west, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 125W and 132W. Similar convection is occurring from 06N to 08N W of 138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1026 mb high pressure system positioned near 30N134W extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing mainly light to gentle NW to N winds along the Baja California offshore waters, with wave heights of 6-9 ft in NW swell based on recent altimeter data. Light to gentle winds are also present in the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California, while light and variable winds are noted in the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are 1-2 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle NW winds are elsewhere along the Mexican offshore waters where wave heights of 4-6 ft continue primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, a weakening cold front is forecast to approach e offshore waters of northern Baja California on Sat night into Sun, bringing an increase in winds and seas. Winds of 20-25 kt are expected N of Punta Eugenia on Sun, with seas building to 8-12 ft in NW swell. These winds will spread southward reaching the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun evening. At the same time, fresh to strong W to NW winds are expected across parts of the Gulf of California. By Sun night, fresh to locally strong NW winds will dominate the entire Baja California offshore waters, including Los Cabos area. The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast late Sat through Sun night. Winds could briefly reach minimal gale force on Sat night. Seas are expected to build up to 9 or 10 ft with this event. Of note, climatological records indicate that the final gale- force event in the Tehuantepec region occurs in late March or early April. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region extending to 88W. Seas across this area are in the range of 3-5 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama where seas are 3-5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds are expected across the Papagayo region through Sat, then winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds Sat night into Sun with seas building to 7 or 8 ft by Sun night. These marine conditions will likely persist through Tue. Moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at night through Sun night. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to affect the offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 30N134W dominates the waters N of the ITCZ and W of about 110W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports fresh to strong trade winds from 07N to 13N W of 135W based on recent scatterometer satellite data. Wave heights are in the 8-10 ft range across this area in mixed NW swell and NE wind waves. For the forecast, high pressure situated just N of the area will continue to dominate most of the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W through Sat. A weakening cold front will clip the northern forecast region late Sat. This will bring increasing NW to N winds of 20-25 kt and building seas of 8-12 ft, mainly across the NE waters, including the offshore waters of Baja California Norte Sat night into Sun. $$ GR/SD