000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180404
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Mar 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 06N85W to 04N93W to 04N102W. The 
ITCZ begins near 11N107W and continues to 11N116W, then resumes 
W of a surface trough near 06N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 82W to 90W, from
08N to 13N between 106W and 123W, and from 04N to 14N W of 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure located near 
31N137W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is 
producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters, with wave heights of 8-9 ft 
primarily in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are 
noted along the Gulf of California, with seas of 1-3 ft. Light 
to gentle NW winds are elsewhere along the Mexican offshore 
waters where wave heights of 4-6 ft continue in mixed NW and SW 
swell. 

For the forecast, a weakening cold front moving SE across the
offshore waters of northern Baja California will bring increasing 
winds to 20-25 kt N of Punta Eugenia on Sun, with seas building 
8-12 ft in NW swell. These winds will spread southward reaching 
the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun evening. At the same time,
fresh to strong westerly winds are expected across parts of the 
Gulf of California. By Sun night, fresh to strong NW winds will 
dominate the entire Baja California offshore waters, including 
Los Cabos area. Fresh to strong N gap winds are expected in the 
Tehuantepec region Sat through Sun. Light to gentle winds will
dominate the entire region Mon evening through Tue.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate NE to E gap winds are ongoing across the Papagayo 
region with seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are
in the Gulf of Panama where seas are 3 ft. Light to gentle winds
are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft in decaying SW 
swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist 
across the Papagayo region through Sat, then winds will increase 
to fresh to strong speeds Sat night into Mon with seas building 
to 8 ft by Sun night. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will resume
in the region of Papagayo Mon and Tue. Mainly gentle winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Panama through the forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1026 mb located near 31N137W dominates the 
waters N of the ITCZ and W of about 115W. The pressure gradient 
between this system and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports 
fresh trade winds from 10N to 23N W of 120W. Wave heights are in
the 8-10 ft range across this area in mixed NW swell and NE wind
waves.

For the forecast, high pressure just N of the area will continue
to dominate most of the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 
110W through Sat. A weakening cold front will clip the northern 
forecast region late on Sat. This will bring increasing winds of
20-25 kt and building seas of 8-12 ft, mainly across the NE 
waters, including the offshore waters of Baja California Norte on
Sun. 

$$
Ramos