000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172119
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N84W to 05N90W to 03N102W. The 
ITCZ continues from 03N102W to 07N115W, then resumes W of a 
surface trough at 06N122W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 07N 
between 82W and 85W, from 09N to 11N between 115W and 121W, and 
within 90 nm N of the ITCZ W of 133W. The surface trough extends
from 12N115W to 05N120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure located near 31N137W
to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is producing 
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along the Baja California
offshore waters, with wave heights of 8-10 ft primarily in NW 
swell. Moderate NW winds are noted per scatterometer data in the 
northern Gulf of California, with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhwere, 
across the Gulf of California mainly light and variable winds 
prevail with seas of 1-2 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to 
the Gulf. Light to gentle NW winds are elsewhere along the 
Mexican offshore waters where wave heights of 4-6 ft continue in 
mixed NW and SW swell. 

For the forecast, a weakening cold front moving SE across the
offshore waters of northern Baja California will bring increasing 
winds to 20-25 kt N of Punta Eugenia on Sun, with seas building 
8-12 ft in NW swell. These winds will spread southward reaching 
the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun evening. At the same time,
fresh to strong westerly winds are expected across parts of the 
Gulf of California. By Sun night, fresh to strong NW winds will 
dominate the entire Baja California offshore waters, including 
Los Cabos area. Fresh to strong N gap winds are expected in the 
Tehuantepec region Sat through Sun. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing across the 
Papagayo region extending to 89W. Seas across this area are in 
the range of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama where seas are 3-4 ft in SW swell. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due
to SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will persist
across the Papagayo region through Sat, then winds will increase
to fresh to strong speeds Sat night into Sun with seas building
to 8 ft by Sun night. Mainly gentle winds are expected in the 
Gulf of Panama. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue to affect
the offshore waters with seas of 3-5 ft. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1029 mb located near 31N137W dominates the 
waters N of the ITCZ and W of about 110W. The pressure gradient 
between this system and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports 
fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N W of 118W. Based on altimeter
data, wave heights are in the 8-10 ft range across this area in
mixed NW swell and NE wind waves.

For the forecast, high pressure just N of the area will continue
to dominate most of the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 
110W through Sat. A weakening cold front will clip the northern 
forecast region late on Sat. This will bring increasing winds of
20-25 kt and building seas of 8-12 ft, mainly across the NE 
waters, including the offshore waters of Baja California Norte on
Sun. 

$$
GR