000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170945
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0940 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 05N88W to 03N97W to 03N105W. The 
ITCZ extends from 03N105W to 04N124W to beyond 05N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 
85W and 91W, and from 03N to 10N W of 129W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1029 mb remains NW of the area, extending a 
ridge SE across the offshore waters and to just W of the 
Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient is 
producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters to 23N, with wave heights of 8-11 ft 
in mixed NW and N swell. Variable winds of less than 10 kt are 
over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 2-3 ft. 
Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the 
south and southwestern Mexican offshore waters where wave heights
of 4-6 ft continue in mixed NW and SW swell. 

Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue off Baja 
California through midday today as the surface ridge remains in 
place. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California will 
continue to affect the region through tonight and subside on 
Fri. Fresh to strong N gap winds are expected to begin across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat through Sun. Deep-layered low pressure 
will dig southward across the SW U.S. and Baja California Norte 
Sun, with an associated cold front sweeping southward across the 
regional waters. Ahead of this front strong W gap winds are 
expected across north and central portions of the Gulf of 
California. Strong NNW winds will surge southward over the 
offshore waters west of the Baja California Sun and Sun night 
behind the front. Seas behind the front are expected to build to 
10-14 ft across the Baja Norte waters Sun night and 8-10 ft 
across Baja Sur waters.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are ongoing across the 
Papagayo region extending to 89W. Seas across this area are in 
the range of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in 
the Gulf of Panama where seas are 3-4 ft in SW swell. Light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 
3-5 ft due to small to moderate S to SW swell.

Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, 
except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds 
will pulse at night during the weekend. Gentle to moderate 
northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through the 
next few days. Small to moderate SW swell will dominate the 
regional waters through the weekend.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1029 mb remains centered north of the 
area with the associated surface ridge extending SE to just W of 
the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient to 
the south between this ridge and relatively lower pressure along 
the ITCZ continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
between the ITCZ and 22N and west of 115W. Wave heights are in 
the 8-10 ft in a dominant long-period NW swell across this area.
The swell will spread SE through most of the region through tonight
and decay on Fri.

High pressure N of the area will settle along about 32N over the
next few days and act to maintain a broad zone of fresh
tradewinds S of 19N that will gradually shift W of 130W by early
Sat. Wave heights across this area will subside slightly during
this time. Stronger high pressure will begin to build across W
portions of the region on Sun and restrengthen the trades W of
120W as a frontal system moves SSE across the Baja California and
Gulf of California waters.

$$
Ramos