000 AXPZ20 KNHC 170403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N86W to 02N102W. The ITCZ extends from 03N107W to 04N125W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 85W-91W, and from 03N to 09N between 127W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1028 mb remains NW of the area, extending a ridge SE across the offshore waters and to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds along the Baja California offshore waters to 23N, with wave heights of 8-11 ft in mixed NW and N swell. Variable winds of less than 10 kt are over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 2-3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south and southwestern Mexican offshore waters to Puerto Angel, where wave heights of 4-6 ft continue in mixed NW and SW swell. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue off Baja California through midday Thu as a surface ridge remains in place. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California will reach the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas tonight through Thu night and subside on Fri. Fresh to strong N gap winds are expected to begin across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat through Sun. Deep-layered low pressure will dig southward across the SW U.S. and Baja Norte Sun, with an associated cold front sweeping southward across the regional waters. Ahead of this front strong W gap winds are expected across north and central portions of the Gulf of California. Strong NNW winds will surge southward over the offshore waters west of the Baja California Sun and Sun night behind the front. Seas behind the front are expected to build to 10-14 ft across the Baja Norte waters Sun night and 8-10 ft across Baja Sur waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region extending to 89W. Seas across this area are in the range of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama where seas are 3-4 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to small to moderate S to SW swell. Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds will pulse at night during the weekend. Gentle to moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through the next few days. Small to moderate SW swell will dominate the regional waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure of 1028 mb remains centered north of the area with the associated surface ridge extending SE to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient to the south between this ridge and relatively lower pressure along the ITCZ continues to support fresh NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 22N and west of 130W, and between 06N and 27N W of about 118W. Wave heights are in the 8-10 ft in a dominant long-period NW swell across this area that has reached to 06N across the tradewind zone. The swell will spread SE through most of the region through Thu night and decay on Fri. High pressure N of the area will settle along about 32N over the next few days and act to maintain a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 19N that will gradually shift W of 130W by early Sat. Wave heights across this area will subside slightly during this time. Stronger high pressure will begin to build across W portions of the region on Sun and restrengthen the trades W of 120W as a frontal system moves SSE across the Baja California and Gulf of California waters. $$ Ramos