000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162108 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N86W to 02N102W. The ITCZ extends from 03N106W to 04N119W to 03.5N130W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N E of 95W, from 09N to 11.5N between 106W and 113W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1030 mb remains NW of the area near 37W129W. A ridge extends from this high center southeastward across the offshore waters and to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along the Baja California Norte offshore waters to 24N, with wave heights of 8-12 ft in mixed NW and N swell per recent altimeter data. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are seen elsewhere offshore of Baja south of Cabo San Lazaro. Slightly lower wave heights of 6-8 ft in NW to N swell are over the offshore waters west of Baja California Sur. Variable winds of less than 10 kt are over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 2-3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south and southwestern Mexican offshore waters to Puerto Angel, where wave heights of 4-6 ft continue in mixed NW and SW swell. North gap winds are diminishing gradually over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region and are fresh this afternoon. Wave heights with these winds are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue off Baja California through midday Thu as a surface ridge remains in place. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California will reach the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas tonight through Thu night and subside on Fri. Strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish through this evening, then become west to northwest at moderate speeds tonight and light and variable through Fri night. Fresh to strong N gap winds are expected to return across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat through Sun. Deep- layered low pressure will dig southward across the SW U.S. and Baja Norte Sun, with an associated cold front sweeping southward across the regional waters. Ahead of this front strong W gap winds are expected across north and central portions of the Gulf of California. Strong NNW winds will surge southward over the offshore waters west of the Baja California Sun and Sun night behind the front. Seas behind the front are expected to build to 10-14 ft across the Baja Norte waters Sun night and 8-10 ft across Baja Sur waters. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to northeast to east gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to 91W. Seas across this area are in the range of 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama where seas are 3-5 ft in new SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to the arrival of small to moderate S to SW swell. Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds will pulse again tonight, and then again at night during the weekend. Gentle to moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through the next few days. Small to moderate SW swell will dominate the regional waters through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure of 1030 mb remains centered north of the area near 37N129W. The associated surface ridge extends southeastward to just beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient to the south between this ridge and relatively lower pressure along the ITCZ continues to support fresh northeast to east winds between the ITCZ and 22N and west of 130W, and between 06N and 27N W of about 118W. Wave heights are in the 8-10 ft in a dominant long-period NW swell across this area that has reached to 06N across the tradewind zone. The swell will spread southeastward through most of the region through Thu night and decay on Fri. High pressure N of the area will settle along about 32N over the next few days and act to maintain a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 19N that will gradually shift W of 130W by early Sat. Wave heights across this area will subside slightly during this time. Stronger high pressure will begin to build across W portions of the region on Sun and restrengthen the trades W of 120W as a frontal system moves SSE across the Baja California and Gulf of California waters. $$ Stripling