000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161606 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05.5N85W to 04N103W. The ITCZ extends from 04N103W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of 80W, from 08N to 11N between 105W and 111W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 124W-138W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1029 mb is well north of the area near 37W130W. A ridge extends from this high center southeastward to across the offshore waters and to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along the Baja California Norte offshore waters to 24N, with wave heights of 8-10 ft in mixed NW and N swell. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are seen elsewhere offshore of Baja south of Cabo San Lazaro. Slightly lower wave heights of 6-8 ft in NW to N swell are over the offshore waters west of Baja California Sur. Variable winds of less than 10 kt are over the Gulf of California along with wave heights of 2-3 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south and southwestern Mexican offshore waters to Puerto Angel, where wave heights of 4-6 ft continue due to S to SW swell, except mixing with NW between 100W-104W. Strong to near- gale force north winds gap winds are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Wave heights with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will continue off Baja California through Thu as a surface ridge remains in place. NW swell over the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will reach the waters offshore Cabo San Lucas tonight through Thu night and subside on Fri. Strong to near gale-force N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to strong speeds by early this afternoon to fresh speeds during the rest of the afternoon, then become west to northwest at moderate speeds tonight and light and variable through Fri night. Fresh to strong N gap winds are expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat through Sun. Looking ahead, deep-layered low pressure will move across Baja Norte Sun, with the associated cold front to be preceded by strong W winds across the northern Gulf of California. Strong northwest winds will surge southward over the offshore waters west of the Baja California Sun and Sun night behind the front as pulse of NW swell moves through those waters. Wave heights are forecast to build to 14 ft with the NW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh northeast to east gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region producing wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft. Moderate north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with wave heights of 3-5 ft in new SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to the arrival of small to moderate S to SW swell. Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds will pulse again tonight. Gentle to moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Strong high pressure of 1029 mb is centered well north of the area near 37N130W. The associated surface ridge extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressure to its south continues to support fresh northeast to east winds between the ITCZ and 23N and west of 130W and between 07N and 27N W of about 118W. Wave heights are in the 8-10 ft in a dominant long-period NW swell across this area that has reached to 06N across the tradewind zone. The swell will spread southeastward through most of the region through Thu night and decay on Fri. High pressure N of the area will settle along about 32N over the next few days and act to maintain a broad zone of fresh tradewinds S of 19N that will gradually shift W of 130W by early Sat. Wave heights across this area will subside slightly during this time. Stronger high pressure will begin to build across W portions of the region on Sun and restrengthen the trades W of 120W. $$ Stripling