000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 02N115W to 04N121W to 03N128W to 03N134W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08.5N E of 86W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 01N E of 99W to coastal Ecuador, and within 120 nm N of ITCZ between 121W-134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure NW of the region is anchored by a 1030 mb high near 30N130W, and extends a ridge SE across over the offshore waters to 16N107W. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds along the Baja California Norte offshore waters, with wave heights of 6-9 ft in mixed N and NW swell. Seas are highest across the outer waters. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are seen elsewhere offshore of Baja south of Punta Eugenia, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NNW winds prevail, with wave heights of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere along and near the south and southwestern SW Mexican offshore waters to Puerto Angel, where wave heights of 4-5 ft prevail in NW swell. High pressure building southward across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico has induced strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in recent hours. Seas there have built to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will prevail off Baja California through Thu as the ridge remains in place the next couple of days. Northwest swell moving through the offshore waters of Baja California Norte today will reaching the waters offshore of Cabo San Lucas late Wed and Wed night. Gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will increase to near gale-force tonight and extend offshore to 13N. Strong gap winds will continue there through midday Wed before diminishing to fresh speeds Wed afternoon and then become west to northwest moderate winds Wed night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh northeast to east gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region producing wave heights in the range of 5-7 ft. Moderate north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama along with wave heights of 3-5 ft in new SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with wave heights of 3-5 ft due to the arrival of small to moderate SW swell. Gentle winds will continue through most of the forecast period, except for the Papagayo region where the fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse through Wed night. Moderate northerly winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure of 1030 mb is centered near 30N130W, just ahead of a dying cold front along 31N. The associated surface ridge extends southeastward to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressure to its south continues to sustain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds between the ITCZ and 24N and west of about 118W. Seas are 8-10 ft in NW swell across this area. Deep layered upper level low pressure just west of the area between 05N and 20N had helped to induce a couple of surface troughs along the ITCZ during the past 24 hours, as well as support moderate convection aloft between 15N-20N. However both of the troughs and the convection has weakened considerably today. Winds across this tradewind belt will diminish to fresh speeds on Wed, with wave heights of 8-10 ft persisting in mixed northeast and northwest swell. The northwest swell component is from a new pulse of large NW swell that recently entered the northern forecast waters, and will propagate southeastward through most of the region going into Thu. Areas of moderate convection along will occur intermittently between the ITCZ and 20N and to the W of 130W as the deep layered upper level low persists just W of the discussion area. $$ Stripling